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Bitcoin has outperformed gold since the start of the Iran war, but it remains down versus gold over the past year. Despite the divergence, one analyst says the magnitude of Bitcoin’s recent correction relative to gold could be consistent with a long-term “buy the dip” setup.
In an Apr. 14 post on X, trader Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s drawdown relative to gold is among the most severe on record. He estimated a decline of roughly 66% in a key valuation metric known as sigma deviation.
Van de Poppe also noted that similar extremes have appeared near major cycle lows in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. He said those periods were followed by strong multi-month and multi-year recoveries.
According to his analysis, capitulation phases have historically led to gains ranging from 100% to 800% over the following 12–24 months.
Van de Poppe argued that current conditions resemble a late-stage bear market bottom rather than a new structural downtrend. He cited weak altcoin performance and deeply oversold signals as additional signs of market exhaustion.
For the short term, he suggested Bitcoin could rebound toward $87,500–$90,000 within three months. For the longer term, his projections extend to $115,000–$125,000 if historical cycle patterns repeat.
Van de Poppe added that a drop toward $30,000 appears unlikely, saying downside sigma metrics have already reached historically extreme levels. While he said a retest of recent lows remains possible, he expects further downside to be limited.
Based on past 12-month post-bottom returns, he characterized current levels as a favorable accumulation zone.
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