Bitcoin Whales Shift from Buying to Selling, Signaling Market Pressure

Bitcoin whales have shifted from aggressive accumulation to distribution, adding pressure to an already strained market. On-chain analytics show that the cohort holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has turned net sellers, with its one-year holdings moving from a gain of roughly 200,000 BTC at the 2024 bull-market peak to a net loss of 188,000 BTC today.

Whale distribution and on-chain trend

The 365-day trend is declining, suggesting structural selling rather than short-term profit-taking. Broader spot demand also remains weak despite ETF inflows and corporate buying, with 30-day apparent demand at -63,000 BTC—indicating that retail and mid-tier selling continues to outweigh institutional purchases.

Mid-tier and “dolphin” wallet behavior

Mid-tier holders (100–1,000 BTC) are still accumulating, but at a slower pace than before. Their one-year growth has fallen from about 1 million BTC last October to 429,000 BTC now, with the slowdown beginning around November 2025.

Smaller “dolphin” wallets remain net buyers year over year, but their pace is fading quickly. U.S. demand has weakened further, with the Coinbase Premium stuck in negative territory even as prices trade in the $65,000–$70,000 range.

Technical read and key price levels

PlanB, the analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, provided a technical assessment based on the same dataset. Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 with an RSI of 44. PlanB expects a test of the 200-week moving average near $59,000 and the realized price around $54,000 before the next sustained leg higher, which he still projects toward the $250,000–$1 million range in coming cycles.

Market performance and macro linkage

At press time, Bitcoin is down 1.06% to $67,397.28 over the past 24 hours, underperforming the broader crypto market amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed institutional selling pressure. The asset shows a strong correlation of 96% with the S&P 500 and 92% with Gold, pointing to a macro-driven, risk-off move.

Impact and near-term outlook

Technical and on-chain weakness is reflected in price trading below key moving averages alongside whale distribution. A break below $64,971 could trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, if Bitcoin holds above the $66,226–$66,500 support zone, it could see a relief bounce toward $68,500 resistance.