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All investors want a crystal ball, and while they are unlikely to find one, sometimes there is a substitute. Bitcoin’s (BTC) chart has featured a pattern that has preceded every major bull market in the digital coin’s history. A key distinction, however, is understanding what the signal does—and what it does not—so investors can use it appropriately.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is an average of an asset’s closing prices over the prior 200 days and is widely used as a long-term trend indicator. For Bitcoin, a “golden cross” occurs when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. Historically, rallies following these crossovers have been large.
According to the article, the February 2023 golden cross kicked off a 43% rally. The October 2023 signal led to a 148% surge. The October 2024 golden cross preceded Bitcoin climbing from roughly $65,000 past $110,000 to new all-time highs, for a gain of about 72%.
The article cautions that there is no guarantee that past chart behavior will repeat. It also notes that Bitcoin is not currently on the verge of experiencing a golden cross. More broadly, it warns that it is usually not smart to make long-term investing decisions based solely on technical indicators, because some investors mistakenly treat them as a substitute for an investment thesis.
Each of Bitcoin’s golden crosses has occurred in proximity to one of its halvings—protocol-level events that cut the issuance of new coins in half every four years. The most recent halving was in April 2024, and the next is expected in 2028.
The article emphasizes that the 200-day SMA is not a fundamental measure of anything. It is a mathematical by-product calculated using about seven months of price action. As a result, it should not be treated as a trigger to commit additional capital to a Bitcoin investment.
If the historical pattern holds through the 2028 halving, the article suggests that the interim period leading up to that event is when Bitcoin tends to build a base before its next major advance. It also notes that this does not imply a smooth ride for holders at any point.
Finally, the article advises that if investors do see a golden cross in the future, they should not assume they will always have access to cheaper prices for long.
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