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BlackRock has led a seven-day inflow streak for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with total inflows reaching $1.9 billion as Bitcoin moves toward $80,000. In the options market, the probability of Bitcoin hitting an all-time high by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 3% YES.
The inflow streak follows months of outflows. April alone saw nearly $1 billion in net positives, suggesting a shift in investor positioning. With geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran continuing, Bitcoin’s appeal as a strategic asset appears to be strengthening.
In the September 30 market, the odds are 9.5% YES, which likely reflects expectations of sustained institutional buying. The largest jump in odds occurs between the June 30 and September 30 contracts, an 8-point increase, indicating traders anticipate meaningful developments in mid-year. The December 31 market is priced at 18% YES.
USDC volume in these markets is $3,208 daily. The largest single price move was a 2-point spike at 1:33 PM. Order book depth indicates it takes $1,540 to move the June 30 market 5 points, suggesting the book is relatively thin and more vulnerable to larger trades.
For traders, sustained ETF inflows are consistent with a bullish trend. A YES share priced at 3¢ for the June 30 contract pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high by then, implying a potential 33x return. That payoff structure aligns with the view that institutional demand could continue pushing prices higher.
Market participants are likely to focus on announcements from Michael Saylor or Elon Musk, as well as geopolitical developments that could affect market stability. Federal Reserve communications on interest rates are also expected to matter for broader risk sentiment.
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