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BlackRock’s recent acquisition of more than $900 million in Bitcoin has lifted its holdings to 806,700 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy. In parallel, market pricing for a Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 has increased, with the “YES” probability now at 3.5%.
The June 30 all-time high market is priced at 3.5% “YES,” up from 3% a day earlier. By comparison, the September 30 and December 31 markets price higher at 12% and 18.5% “YES,” respectively. The spread between June and September odds suggests traders anticipate a potentially meaningful catalyst in the mid-year window.
For the June market, trading volume is reported at $265 per day in USDC. The market also indicates that $1,540 is needed to move the price by 5 points. The September market is described as slightly more liquid, requiring $4,894 for the same 5-point movement.
A recent 2-point spike in the September market points to active speculation tied to developments expected around mid-year.
BlackRock’s purchase at this scale is presented as evidence of strong institutional demand for Bitcoin. The article links this to a reduced probability of a drop to $60,000 in April.
It also notes that the April market shows no significant volume, indicating traders are not actively positioning for a near-term dip. At current odds, a “YES” bet on an all-time high by June is described as paying out at long odds, aligning with broader skepticism about an immediate surge.
The article highlights potential drivers that could shift sentiment and odds, including Federal Reserve announcements and geopolitical events involving Iran. It also points to regulatory developments and major corporate Bitcoin adoption as factors that could influence confidence in reaching new highs.
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