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Bitcoin has climbed back above $81,000 this week, marking a roughly 10% rebound from the $72,000 floor it held through late April. The next phase of trading hinges on whether price can clear the $83,000 to $85,000 area, where key technical measures have previously acted as a barrier.
The $83,000 to $85,000 range aligns with the 200-day moving average, a level that has shown “sticky” behavior before. Trading volume rose about 4% in early May, which the article links to a higher likelihood of a decisive move.
Two main paths are outlined:
If downside pressure increases, the 100-day moving average near $72,000 is described as the “line in the sand.”
A close above $85,000 is presented as a threshold that could quickly shift expectations. The article states that this would open the door to $89,000, followed by $94,000. It also notes that the $100,000 level is the next major psychological target discussed in the market.
On the momentum side, the weekly MACD crossover occurred on April 13. Since then, Bitcoin is up about 15%, described as steady rather than explosive. The article also cites prior MACD crossover outcomes: after the October 2023 crossover, Bitcoin rallied 147%; after the October 2024 signal, it gained 75%; and in May 2025, it rose 35%. It cautions that past results do not guarantee future performance.
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) dropped below -1.0 in February when Bitcoin traded around $60,000, which the article interprets as miners holding rather than selling. During the recovery, selling pressure remained light, helping stabilize price. While the MPI has climbed since then, it remains under zero, suggesting miners are not yet “dumping.”
The article flags a potential change if the MPI crosses 0.5, which could increase selling pressure and slow or stall any rally.
Profit-taking is also highlighted. Net realized profits were reported at $207.56 million, indicating that some market participants are cashing out at current levels. However, the article says demand has been absorbing these sales: Bitcoin continued rising past $80,000 even as sellers were active, implying buyers are willing to take the other side.
Resistance and support are framed as the immediate battleground. If Bitcoin cannot break $85,000, the article expects a likely retest of $75,000, followed by $73,000. Below that, the 100-day moving average near $72,000 becomes critical; losing it would likely shift sentiment quickly and prompt traders to look for lower entry points.
On the demand-versus-supply balance, the article reiterates that profit realization at $207.56 million shows sellers are present, but not dominant so far. It concludes that the interaction between the MACD (bullish), the MPI (neutral), and profit-taking (sellers active but not overwhelming) will likely determine whether Bitcoin breaks above $85,000 or falls back to test support over the coming weeks.
The piece adds that BTC tested around $82,000 after $135 million in liquidation wiped leveraged traders, and it characterizes the move from $72,000 to $81,000 as a steady grind that can sometimes precede larger moves once resistance breaks.
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