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S&I Rating expects Vietnam’s securities sector-wide capital-raising activity to remain high in 2026, broadly around the 2025 level of about VND 100 trillion. The outlook update comes as 2026 marks the start of Vietnam’s five-year plan for 2026-2030, with the country targeting GDP growth of 10% or more. To support this, expansionary fiscal policy is identified as a key driver alongside a supportive monetary policy.
S&I Rating links the improved outlook for the securities industry to expectations of a better business environment, which it says could lift corporate profits and, in turn, support stock prices and trading volumes. Higher trading fees, margin lending income, improved investment portfolio profits, and increased equity and bond issuance to mobilize capital are cited as potential channels benefiting securities firms.
Based on 2026 business plans disclosed by companies, most securities firms appear optimistic about market prospects. The consensus view is supported by liquidity improvements following the FTSE upgrade and a rise in margin lending capacity as firms raise additional capital.
S&I Rating reports that many securities firms expect 2026 pretax profit growth to be in double digits, or more than 50%, led by HCM (+56%), VPX (+44%), VCI (+41%), MBS (+31%), and VCK (+29%). It also notes that SSI (+15%) and TCX (+18%) take more conservative scenarios after removing outliers.
The rating agency attributes the strong growth outlook to a high consensus on positive market conditions, alongside increased margin lending capacity enabled by capital raising.
S&I Rating forecasts 2026 to be a busy year for sector capital increases, driven by three overlapping factors:
As a result, many securities firms have announced plans to raise capital significantly to support ambitious business plans. After major brokerage houses were listed successfully in 2025, mid-tier firms are also preparing IPOs, including Kafi, HDBS, and OCBS.
The sector-wide capital increase in 2026 is estimated to remain around the 2025 level, at approximately VND 100 trillion. S&I Rating views the capital-raising activity as positive over the long term, noting that it can strengthen capital buffers and diversify long-term funding sources.
At the same time, the rating agency says monitoring is still needed for dilution risk and capital-use efficiency.
S&I Rating highlights the upgrade to emerging market status as a milestone for Vietnam’s stock market development. It says the change could help attract foreign capital, support further market reforms, improve governance transparency, and deepen the market with new financial products.
From September 2026, passive capital from ETFs allocated to Vietnam could reach about USD 1.44 billion, excluding larger active funds. Vietnam is also nearing MSCI criteria, which could enable an emerging market upgrade in the coming years and broaden foreign investment opportunities.
In the short term, S&I Rating expects the credit rating impact to be mixed. It cites higher compliance costs and capital requirements, along with tighter funding conditions, as factors that may pressure profits in the near term. This could lead to rating divergence among securities firms, favoring large, well-governed firms, while small, highly leveraged firms may face restructuring pressures and higher costs.
The rating agency also points to intensifying competition in the securities sector, including competition from banks’ affiliated brokerage arms and large conglomerates building financial services ecosystems for clients. It adds that AI and technology innovations could further drive efficiency improvements across the industry.
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