China's GDP growth in Q1 2026 expected to reach around 5%

China’s economy is expected to deliver a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP growth forecast to reach around 5% as the country enters the 15th Five-Year Plan period and local and central authorities implement macroeconomic policies more proactively.

Policy push at the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan

With 2026 marking the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China has stepped up the implementation of macroeconomic policies since the start of the year. Authorities have focused on maximizing the cumulative effect of existing measures and introducing new steps to support economic momentum.

Q1 2026 GDP growth forecasts

Chinese experts expect GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 to be close to 5%.

• Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said the economy has had a strong and favorable start, with major indicators generally improving, and that overall growth is expected to be near 5% in Q1.
• Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Chasing Financial Holdings and deputy director of the Wu Chaoming Research Institute, projected GDP growth of 4.9% in Q1 2026, citing robust manufacturing, rising exports, increased investment, and stable consumption.
• Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open Source Fund, said GDP growth in Q1 2026 is forecast to reach about 5%, supported by policy effects aimed at growth stability and structural external demand.
• Chen Li, chief economist and head of the Sichuan Securities Institute of Finance, said macro indicators have started the year with stability, continued structural optimization, and improved market expectations, supporting the view of steady development.

Key early indicators: industry, investment and consumption

In January–February 2026, large-scale industrial enterprises recorded year-on-year growth in value added of 6.3%. Fixed asset investment also shifted from decline to growth, with infrastructure investment rising sharply by 11.4% year-on-year, indicating continued positive momentum in investment.

Experts also pointed to demand conditions around the Lunar New Year. Yang Delong noted that consumer demand strengthened in Q1, leading to a temporary uptick in the consumer price index, while consumer growth improved and helped stabilize the economy overall.

How policy is expected to support growth

Experts said macro policy will continue to be adjusted in line with annual targets, with an emphasis on being proactive, effective and precise.

Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy is expected to be strengthened and made more efficient, including faster implementation of special long-term treasury bonds and policy-based financial instruments to expand investment and spur domestic demand.

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is expected to be moderately loose to support growth, employment and prices, maintain ample liquidity, and reduce overall financing costs. Structural monetary policy tools are also expected to be used to boost domestic demand and technology.

2026 spending and structural tools

Wen Bin, chief economist at the People’s Bank of China, said fiscal spending in 2026 will remain substantially high, alongside ongoing optimization and innovation of structural monetary policy tools and intensified efforts to expand domestic demand.

Outlook and implications

Overall, the forecasts and early data suggest China’s economy is on a stable development path with improving quality, providing a foundation to meet annual growth targets. Experts characterized the first quarter as benefiting from stronger manufacturing, rising exports, increased investment, and steady consumption, supported by a coordinated policy mix.

Source: VietnamPlus