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In a matter of months, a key issue affecting CVS Health’s performance has seemingly vanished. On April 7, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized the amount by which it will increase payments to providers operating under the Medicare program.
The original proposed increase was poorly received by investors because it was barely above zero and raised concerns about a further squeeze on industry margins. With the official increase now far better than expected, healthcare stocks including CVS Health have surged again.
In January, news of CMS’s proposed 0.09% Medicare rate increase triggered a sharp sell-off in top healthcare stocks, including CVS. While CVS is widely viewed as a pharmacy chain, it has been a diversified healthcare services company for some time.
CVS Health operates its pharmacy business and is also the parent company of Aetna, a health insurance provider. As a major provider of Medicare Advantage plans, the prospect of only a 0.09% increase signaled lower profitability ahead.
That perception has improved. CMS’s finalized payment policy calls for a nearly 2.5% increase. The change means insurers will collect $13 billion more in payments than previously expected.
Although payment increases still lag rising costs—reported as as much as 9% annually—sell-side analysts such as Mizuho’s Jared Holz believe plan providers like CVS Health’s Aetna unit have a better chance of increasing margins next year, largely through benefit cuts.
The key implication for CVS is how the Medicare payment decision could affect earnings over the coming year. While managed care represents only a portion of CVS’s overall business, the update supports confidence in management’s 2026 earnings guidance.
In its Q4 2025 earnings report, CVS management expected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to come in between $7 and $7.20 per share. Since the Medicare announcement, shares have rallied from the low $70s, implying the stock is trading at around 11 times forward earnings.
By comparison, health insurance stocks such as UnitedHealth Group and Humana trade at 15 to 20 times forward earnings. The article notes that CVS is not necessarily expected to reach the same valuation level, but even partial movement toward that range could have a meaningful impact on the stock price. Using the current guidance, it suggests that at 13 or 14 times forward earnings, a move to $90 or $100 per share may be reasonable.
The high end of analyst estimates calls for CVS to report EPS of $7.40 this year. With the larger Medicare payments potentially supporting results, the article also points to the possibility of double-digit earnings growth in 2027.
Alongside growth potential, the article cites CVS’s 3.4% forward dividend yield as an additional source of shareholder return.
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