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A recent analysis from CoinGecko points to a significant reversal in fortunes for participants on Pump.fun, the Solana-based platform for memecoin launches. For much of 2024 and 2025, most traders who closed positions ended their months in the red. However, data through April 2026 shows a clear shift, with profitable traders now in the majority—suggesting a more disciplined group has returned to the platform.
The research tracks realized profits and losses among wallets that bought and sold tokens on Pump.fun (and its associated PumpSwap).
The study focuses exclusively on realized PnL—actual buy-and-sell outcomes—netted across all tokens at the wallet level. It does not include unrealized “bagholder” losses, and it does not filter out bots or wash trading, which could affect wallet counts. USD valuations are based on on-chain pricing data, which can be imprecise for thinly traded tokens. Earlier months from Pump.fun’s January 2024 launch were omitted because activity was negligible at the start.
From April 2024 onward, the share of profitable traders generally hovered below 50% in most months. It fell as low as 30.1% in June 2025, during a period when the broader retail crowd piled into high-risk memecoins amid the 2025 hype cycle.
By late 2025, monthly active wallets had fallen sharply from a peak of 5.2 million in May 2025 to 1.8 million in December 2025. CoinGecko suggests this exodus may have “cleared the field,” setting the stage for the profitability turnaround that followed.
The turnaround began in February 2026, when 56.8% of traders recorded gains. The trend strengthened in the following months: 70.0% of traders were profitable in March, and 73.3% were profitable in April.
In April 2026, roughly 2.05 million wallets—65.1% of the profitable group—earned between $1 and $500. Another 87,000 wallets (2.8%) made $500 to $1,000, while 169,000 wallets (5.4%) pocketed more than $1,000.
Losses followed a similar pattern concentrated in smaller outcomes. In April 2026, 793,000 wallets (25.2%) lost $1 to $500, while only small fractions experienced losses above $500.
CoinGecko notes that it cannot pinpoint the exact cause of the profitability surge. Still, the researchers say the pattern is consistent with a natural market cleansing: as less experienced or undercapitalized traders exited during 2025’s cooling phase, a leaner cohort re-entered in 2026. This selective return appears to have shifted the overall profitability distribution toward wallets that remain active.
The full dataset, including monthly breakdowns from April 2024 to April 2026, is available on Dune Analytics.
While memecoin trading remains a high-risk arena, the report indicates current conditions are rewarding participants who approach the market with greater selectivity and timing. Whether the recovery sustains will depend on broader market sentiment and new token inflows in the months ahead.
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