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At the end of April, the main stock market indices on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) posted gains of around 10% and continued rising into May 2026. HOSE’s total market capitalization increased by 10.82% from the previous month, equivalent to 67.92% of 2025 GDP. Despite VN-Index reaching new highs, the market is showing sharp divergence across sectors and individual stocks, and not all investors are profitable. Liquidity is also less abundant than before.
In a talk show on The Finance Street on VTV8, Mr. Le Quang Chung, Deputy CEO of Smart Invest (AAS), said the market’s dominant trend remains long-term growth. However, gains have concentrated in certain groups and specific stocks rather than broad-based across sectors, leaving some investors unable to benefit from the rally.
Mr. Le Quang Chung pointed to three main barriers that keep capital cautious:
While macro and micro indicators are improving and Q1 2026 earnings growth was described as very strong, the market appears to focus more on individual company performance than on the overall picture. Over the first four months, profits did not clearly translate into stock price movements. Some sectors with positive Q1 2026 earnings growth saw prices fall or rise only modestly, including personal goods, household goods, food and beverages, and retail. In contrast, some sectors with weaker profits but higher expectations still recorded price increases, creating a mismatch between fundamentals and market pricing.
According to the speaker, psychological factors, liquidity, and expectations influence short-term price movements more than reported profits. In the long run, however, earnings remain a fundamental driver of stock prices. A comparison of VN-Index prices with market profit growth from 2010–2026 shows a long-run correlation, with price-earnings multiples adjusting over time.
In the short term, the divergence is likely to continue. The market may also see technical corrections to refresh positions and defend support levels. Over the long run, the dominant trend remains growth. Once upgrading bottlenecks are fully resolved in Q3 and Q4 2026, liquidity is expected to flow more toward groups with cheaper valuations and clearer recovery stories.
Mr. Le Quang Chung said investors should not “go for broke” across every stock. The priority should be value and the VN30 group, selecting leading companies with steady earnings growth across quarters. He also recommended strengthening risk management and maintaining a reasonable cash reserve of roughly 20–30% to deploy on deeper pullbacks.
He added that the current market P/E remains attractively priced relative to the region, making it suitable for accumulating stocks with solid fundamentals over the next 6–12 months. He noted that some well-performing companies have seen their stock prices stall, and investors should choose accordingly.
For company selection, he suggested favoring firms with positive cash flow from operations, low debt, and steady cash dividends. For sectors, banks and VN30 should lead the portfolio due to stable profits, while retail and consumer staples may also offer opportunities as earnings recover but prices remain subdued. In the securities sector, upgrade expectations are clearer but require selective stock picking.
Conversely, he advised caution with real estate and speculative stocks until legal bottlenecks are resolved, to avoid chasing shares without solid earnings fundamentals. He concluded that investors should not panic if prices do not rise immediately, emphasizing that in investing, price eventually aligns with intrinsic value and that identifying good stocks at depressed prices is a key advantage for superior future returns.
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