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Ethereum’s downtrend versus Bitcoin is following a bearish structure that previously defined 2024–2025, increasing the risk of another sharp decline. The outlook centers on ETH/BTC remaining capped by a multi-year descending trend line and exchange reserve data pointing to more sell-side pressure for Ether.
ETH/BTC has been stuck below a multi-year descending trend line that has limited every breakout attempt since 2022, including a move that preceded the nearly 70% drop between 2024 and 2025. A similar setup appears to be forming again.
After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near a cluster of resistance. That area included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red). Since then, the pair has turned lower and slipped back below its 20-month EMA (green) support near 0.034 BTC, suggesting sellers remain in control.
The next major downside target for 2026 is around 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists. This would represent a decline of about 40% from current levels and would align with the 2020 cycle bottom.
Exchange data highlights a divergence between Ether and Bitcoin that could add to downside risk for ETH. As of May, Ether reserves on Binance—described as the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume—had risen to 3.62 million ETH. That figure corresponds to roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges, according to CryptoQuant.
By contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen.
Rising exchange balances typically indicate more tokens are available for sale, which can pressure price if demand is insufficient to absorb the added supply. Falling reserves, on the other hand, often suggest coins are being moved off exchanges for longer-term holding.
In this context, the reserve trends reinforce the broader market picture: Ether appears to face relatively higher available supply on exchanges, while Bitcoin shows signs of tighter exchange-side liquidity.
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