Expert view: Stocks welcome two positive signals, but the risk of breaking the 1,600-point level remains

Past week, the Vietnamese stock market ended the session in a tug-of-war between technical rebounds and profit-taking pressure, alongside cautious sentiment ahead of global macro data. The VN-Index, which advanced at times, turned lower in late-week trading, pointing to weak sustainable buying and greater dispersion among individual stocks.

Foreign investors have remained net sellers since the start of the year, even as FTSE Russell upgrade results approach. This pattern suggests the upgrade narrative has largely been priced in for the near term. Outside Vietnam, ongoing US-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices continue to keep inflation concerns in focus.

Outlook: potential retest if risks escalate

The VN-Index’s latest technical rebound may have ended last week, and the market could face additional challenges next week. In a negative scenario—if geopolitical risks intensify—the index could retest the March 24 low near 1,591 points.

Market direction remains closely tied to global macro factors, while domestic issues such as liquidity, interest rates, and energy security are not yet fully reflected in current prices.

Key guidance for investors

Investors are advised to limit new long positions in the near term, keep a high cash level, and focus on stocks with solid fundamentals and positive outlooks for the year as clearer signals emerge.

Two positives: early strength and improving momentum

According to Agriseco and FinSuccess, there were two notable positives for the market.

• Nguyen Anh Khoa, Agriseco’s Chief Analyst, said early-week strength helped the index break above the 200-day moving average, with turnover near the 20-day average, indicating improved demand as the market tested support.
• However, momentum weakened as selling pressure increased in the last two sessions, and the index closed below 1,700, reflecting more cautious investor sentiment.

Technically, the VN-Index stayed above the 20-day moving average. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD improved from oversold levels, while buying interest persisted on dips—suggesting the market is seeking balance amid near-term volatility rather than a clear downtrend.

Inflation and sector pressure from higher oil prices

Rising oil prices are adding cost pressures to sectors such as transport and manufacturing, which can weigh on corporate margins. Inflation risks also keep policy normalization in focus. Still, the overall impact is expected to be short-term and contingent on geopolitical developments.

In Vietnam, diplomatic efforts and new energy supply sources are helping ease energy market tensions and mitigate systemic risk.

Potential catalysts and capital rotation

Two catalysts could drive shifts in capital in the near term:

• FTSE Russell upgrade decision due on 07/04
• Policy measures announced at the first session of the 16th National Assembly, which could support growth for 2026–2030

Some funds may rotate toward fixed-income or deposit channels as rates rise, but this appears to be tactical rather than a structural shift.

Impact and broader market assessment

Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase with selective capital. The medium-term outlook will depend on global macro developments and domestic policy progress.

Investors are also expected to watch for technical shifts in capital flows across frontier and emerging markets as upgrade-related dynamics unfold. The differential in interest rates and global capital flows continues to shape expectations: higher USD rates tend to pull funds back to the US, while converging expectations for rate cuts can rebalance capital toward emerging and frontier markets.

In sum, the VN-Index is navigating consolidation with selective positioning, and the next phase will hinge on global macro trends and the policy trajectory at home.