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VN-Index is showing positive signals again after a pullback, with expectations that the index could move higher if it clears 1,920 points.
Analysts say the market’s rebound is supported by abundant liquidity flowing into large-cap stocks, optimism about the economy, and expectations of an upgrade in market status.
Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Product Development at Yuanta Securities (Retail Clients), said stocks are rising due to capital inflows and investor sentiment.
Liquidity on exchanges such as HOSE surged as domestic investors continued to pour money into the market, seeking profit opportunities as other channels—such as real estate or savings—became less attractive.
Minh added that excitement and high profit expectations created a spillover effect, drawing a large amount of capital from retail investors into equities.
Expectations of a market upgrade in September are also attracting foreign capital. The upgrade story—from frontier to emerging market—is described as a strategic driver that can help the market attract substantial long-term capital from foreign funds.
The upgrade is also expected to improve transparency and standardization in the domestic market, which can raise the quality of listed companies and strengthen confidence among “smart money” investors.
Minh noted that the current uptrend is led by flagship groups within the VinGroup ecosystem, with banking, securities, steel, and real estate continuing to provide supportive roles.
Din Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy at VNDirect, said money has continued to return to stocks.
On May 8, the market responded positively to the liquidity infusion. The VN-Index rose sharply, surpassing a key resistance zone. At the close on May 8, the VN-Index stood at 1,915 points, up 6 points from the previous session.
Hinh said breaking above 1,900 with high liquidity is a positive technical signal, suggesting the short-term uptrend is likely to continue. He expects the index to move toward the nearest resistance near 1,940 in subsequent sessions, while noting that volatility may persist in the 1,900–1,920 range.
Hinh added that the 2,084–2,145 point level is possible, but investors should remain cautious.
ABS Research said the 1,920 level will be a critical milestone to confirm the strength of the trend. “If the VN-Index surpasses this peak, capital inflows could shift more, especially in the early up-move. The market would then have a basis to target higher levels,” ABS Research said.
ABS Research also cited macro and policy support, including Moody’s upgrading Vietnam’s sovereign outlook from “stable” to “positive” in May. It also pointed to the potential inclusion on MSCI’s watchlist for a June 2026 upgrade, which could further increase international capital interest.
ABS Research presented two scenarios for the VN-Index in May. In the positive scenario, the index would clear the old peak of 1,920 early, then consolidate at the top with improved liquidity and broader money flow. In that case, the VN-Index could target the 2,084–2,145 range.
On strategy, ABS Research said equity risk has fallen significantly compared with earlier periods. Investors who deployed capital toward the end of March may continue to hold or increase weights in suitable stocks.
For short-term investors, ABS Research recommended trading around supports and resistances for each stock. It highlighted sectors and company profiles including positive earnings outlooks, solid finances, high dividends, reasonable valuations, and potential beneficiaries if foreign capital returns more strongly under the upgrade narrative.
Meanwhile, TPS (Tien Phong Securities) forecast that the base case still trends upward, but with cautious investor sentiment.
TPS said the VN-Index is influenced by both supporting and risk factors. Positive elements include stable economic growth, improved market quality following the upgrade to a secondary emerging market, and an improved sovereign credit outlook. TPS also viewed the VN-Index’s temporary move above resistance around 1,909 points as a positive short-term signal, suggesting the index could continue toward the next resistance around 1,925 points, corresponding to the January peak.
TPS added that after surpassing 1,865 points, that level could become an important support in the near term. It expects the VN-Index to trade in a range of 1,865–1,925 points in May.
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