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Tesla’s latest quarterly results produced an initial “double beat” that sparked investor enthusiasm and prompted some analysts to turn bullish. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, said the company is “morphing into a physical AI stalwart” and assigned a $600 price target. However, former Fidelity fund manager and veteran investor George Noble delivered a sharply negative assessment, calling the earnings and the associated call “the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla,” and arguing that even a $65–70 TSLA share price forecast would be generous.
In a detailed post published on April 23, Noble outlined four main criticisms of Tesla.
Noble’s first point centers on Elon Musk’s admission that HW3 cars cannot perform unsupervised autonomous driving, alongside Tesla’s plan to compensate customers by offering a “discounted trade-in” for Hardware 4 vehicles.
Noble argued that this represents a major broken promise and a significant liability, particularly given that Musk had assured customers that HW3 vehicles would be fully capable of “FSD” as recently as 2022. He estimated that approximately 285,000 “FSD” purchasers are affected.
Noble also criticized Musk’s messaging around FSD readiness. He pointed to the sequence in which Musk said FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment, before later clarifying that major improvements are “in the pipeline.”
Noble concluded that the remarks indicate “the software isn’t SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching,” and suggested this would push back the timing of any Q4 release to at least the fourth quarter.
Within the same post, Noble echoed other Tesla bears by arguing that much of the company’s valuation—especially amid another quarter of weakening sales—rests on expectations for artificial intelligence (AI), “FSD,” the “Cybercab,” and the “Optimus” humanoid robot.
Noble also compared Tesla’s position with Waymo, describing Waymo as “the LEADING robotaxi company” and saying it is “YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.” He added that Waymo’s latest funding round valued the company at $125 billion.
By press time on April 24, investors appeared to be leaning more toward Noble’s interpretation than Ives’s. While Tesla shares rose about 4% immediately after the quarterly report was released, they later turned negative.
During the most recent regular session, Tesla stock fell 3.56%. After a partial rebound in the extended session, the shares were trading at $373.16, representing a total weekly loss of 5.72%.
At press time on April 24, Tesla’s market capitalization was reported above $1.4 trillion.
Source note: Finbold (referenced for the last 5 days / one-week chart).
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