Global crude steel production falls 2.2% in February as China remains oversupplied; Vietnam and India accelerate

Global crude steel production in February 2026 fell to 141.8 million tonnes, down 2.2% year on year. The two-month total reached 298.2 million tonnes, down 1.5%. Despite high blast furnace operating rates, the data have not yet translated into a clear improvement in China’s steel market. China continues to face oversupply and weak domestic demand, while Vietnam stands out as a regional bright spot, with two-month output up 14.4%, the highest among major monitored markets.

China steel: high blast furnace utilization, but market remains dull

World Steel Association data show that in February 2026 China produced 76.1 million tonnes of crude steel, accounting for more than 53% of global output, down 3.6% year on year. Year-to-date to early April 2026, output was 160.3 million tonnes, also down 3.6% year on year.

CRU data indicate blast furnace (BF) utilization at 87% by end-February, a high operating rate maintained to offset declines in electric arc furnace (EAF) production. EAF utilization fell from 54% to 35%, a seasonal change attributed to the Lunar New Year. However, the continued high blast furnace utilization has not produced a notable market improvement, with oversupply and thin trading volumes remaining key features.

Policy stimulus has not yet triggered a turning point. The People’s Bank of China cut the rediscount and reserve-repurchase rates in late January 2026, but sentiment stayed cautious amid weak loan demand from both banks and enterprises. Downstream buyers did not rush to restock ahead of the holiday, and the near-term outlook for China’s steel market remains subdued.

Asia excluding China: brighter trajectory

Outside China, Asia posted positive signals. February 2026 crude steel output in the region reached 28.7 million tonnes, up 2.5% year on year. The year-to-date two-month total stood at 61.7 million tonnes, up 5.1%.

India led the group with 13.6 million tonnes in February, up 7.7% year on year. Japan produced 6.4 million tonnes, roughly flat versus the prior year. Korea produced 4.8 million tonnes, up 0.2%.

Vietnam: output growth of 14.4% over two months

Vietnam’s February 2026 crude steel output reached 1.7 million tonnes, up 5.1% year on year. For the first two months of 2026, output totaled 3.7 million tonnes, up 14.4% year on year.

The Vietnam Steel Association said Vietnam’s growth rate is the fastest among monitored markets. It attributes the rise to domestic demand supported by infrastructure and construction investment, including metro projects, expressways, and industrial real estate developments. The association also noted that domestic producers are benefiting from supply-chain shifts toward Vietnam, particularly in downstream sectors with high steel demand.

Europe and North America: diverging trajectories

In Europe, results were mixed. EU27 output in February 2026 was 9.8 million tonnes, down 3.6% year on year, with a two-month total of 20.1 million tonnes, down 3.1%. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose 4.8% to 2.8 million tonnes in February, signaling a rebound in industrial production. Western Europe outside the EU also increased by 3.1% to 3.4 million tonnes.

In North America, February 2026 crude steel output was 8.5 million tonnes, up 0.5% year on year. The United States produced 6.5 million tonnes in February, down 7% month on month but up 6% year on year. Weekly data reinforced the trend: for the week ending 4 April 2026, U.S. crude steel production reached 1.831 million tonnes, up 1.6% week on week and up 8.2% year on year. Year-to-date through 4 April 2026, U.S. crude steel production reached 24.028 million tonnes, up 5.2% year on year, with capacity utilization at 77.4% versus 76.1% a year earlier.

Other regions and market implications

Elsewhere, outcomes diverged. The Middle East produced 3.7 million tonnes in February, up 0.1% year on year. Africa produced 2.0 million tonnes, up 4.7%. Russia and the CIS including Ukraine recorded the sharpest decline at 6.0 million tonnes, down 10.5%, reflecting ongoing conflict and sanctions. South America produced 3.1 million tonnes, down 7.7%.

Industry experts said the two-month data point to a global steel market increasingly differentiated by geography and domestic demand growth. They noted that markets supported by large infrastructure investments—such as Vietnam, India, and the United States—have maintained output growth, while much of the rest of the world, particularly China, Europe, and geopolitically sensitive regions, continues to contract. They added that the health of the global steel market in 2026 is likely to depend more on regional demand recovery in construction and manufacturing than on any broad macro demand driver.