Global oil supply tightens as US blockade disrupts shipments via Iran ports

Global oil supply will be tighter as Iran's oil cannot participate in the market, affecting many Asian oil-importing countries. CENTCOM, the U.S. Central Command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said it would begin blocking all maritime traffic to and from Iran's ports from the morning of April 13, implementing the blockade previously announced by President Donald Trump for the Hormuz Strait. The blockade will apply evenly to ships of all nations entering the area along Iran's coast, including all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the statement said. This move could further tighten global oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz has already been disrupted since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, pushing energy prices higher since late February. It is a critical shipping lane that handles around 20% of global crude oil and LNG and primarily serves Asian markets. However, around 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil are still being pumped to the market via Hormuz. According to data from Kpler, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day in March and is expected to export 1.71 million barrels per day in April. These figures are higher than the 2025 annual average of 1.68 million. Iran's surge in production before the conflict on February 28 had pushed the volume of oil on ships to near-record levels. More than 180 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently floating on ships, as of early April, according to Kpler. However, even after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement two weeks ago, tanker traffic through Hormuz did not improve much. According to LSEG, three supertankers passed through the strait on April 11. Each tanker can carry up to 2 million barrels. But these figures remain well below the pre-conflict period when more than 100 ships per day passed. After Mr. Trump announced the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, some ships avoided the route. Agios Fanourios I — a Malta-flagged supertanker that had planned to pass the strait on April 12 to load Iraqi crude for Vietnam — turned back and is currently anchored near the Gulf of Oman. According to Kpler, as of April 7, about 187 ships totaling 172 million barrels of crude and refined products were in the Persian Gulf. The tightening Iranian oil supply could push global oil prices higher. At present Brent is around $102 per barrel, while WTI is around $104. This could also affect many Asian countries dependent on Middle East oil. Before the conflict, most Iranian oil was shipped to China, the world's biggest crude importer. Last month, the U.S. also announced a mechanism to waive sanctions for temporary Iranian oil imports. Data from ship-tracking firms LSEG and Kpler released on April 8 show India is set to receive its first Iranian crude load in seven years this week. Reuters reported last month that many Asian refineries plan to buy Iranian oil after the easing of U.S. sanctions. The conflict in the Middle East has reversed forecasts for supply and demand in this year's oil market. Analysts expect demand to exceed supply by about 750,000 barrels per day this year. A similar survey last September showed a surplus of 1.63 million bpd, mainly due to OPEC+ gradually increasing output. The IEA estimates that by the end of March the conflict had reduced global oil supply by about 11 million barrels per day. In a report dated April 9, ANZ bank put this figure at 9 million bpd. In January, the IEA reported global oil supply at about 106.6 million bpd.