Global trade transformation opens opportunities for diversification and upgrading Vietnam's value chain

Speaking at The Year Ahead 2026, an event organized by Bloomberg Businessweek Vietnam on April 10, Suan Teck Kin, Global Markets and Economics Research Director at United Overseas Bank (UOB), offered insights into the reshaping of global trade. He noted that while global goods trade remained resilient in 2025, geopolitical tensions and high energy prices could weigh on global trade growth in 2026. This requires countries, including Vietnam, to adopt flexible and effective policy responses. One important trend Suan highlighted is the shift in the US import mix since 2018. Mexico and ASEAN have risen as major sources of US imports, while China’s share has fallen sharply. This presents substantial opportunities for ASEAN economies, including Vietnam, but also raises the bar on competitiveness and production efficiency. Vietnam needs to increase the value-added content of its export products to maintain and strengthen its position in the global supply chain. For China, the structure of trade is also undergoing rebalancing. ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner, and Vietnam accounts for about 4.7 percent of China’s total trade. The evidence shows Vietnam’s deeper integration into regional production networks and supply chains. However, according to a UOB economist, overreliance on a few major export markets, especially the United States, makes Vietnam vulnerable to tariffs and trade restrictions. Therefore, diversifying export markets is not just a choice but a strategic requirement. In this context, Vietnam should maximize the use of free trade agreements it has signed and expand into fast-growing markets in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe. Vietnam has a strong position in electronics and semiconductors, which it views as a foundation to move into higher-value segments in the value chain. Vietnam currently ranks eighth globally in exports of electronics-related products, with more than 170 semiconductor projects with foreign investment, he noted regarding the outlook for the industries. Looking ahead, although GDP growth shows signs of slowing, Vietnam’s economy will remain supported by manufacturing, construction, and services, along with strong exports and foreign direct investment. Yet inflation risk is rising due to spillovers from energy prices, which could lead the central bank to maintain stable monetary policy throughout 2026. At the event, most economists said Vietnam should seize opportunities to boost competitiveness, diversify markets and products, and develop high value-added industries. Only then can Vietnam reinforce its position in regional and global value chains and ensure sustainable development in the future.