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Spot gold (XAUUSD) rose to a two-week high on Thursday, briefly touching $4,764.01 before giving back gains to close near $4,709.85, up $18.94 on the day. The move appeared to be driven by a rapid shift in expectations for U.S. interest rates, with oil acting as the key catalyst in both directions.
Gold benefited early as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near a two-month low. A weaker dollar tends to make spot gold cheaper for buyers outside the United States, while Treasury yields eased at the same time. With both the dollar and yields moving lower, gold’s rally did not require additional justification and pushed prices higher through the morning.
In the first part of the session, a sequence of developments supported the rally. Peace-related headlines suggested the U.S. and Iran were nearing a framework agreement. Shortly afterward, crude oil fell sharply, reducing perceived inflation pressure. Lower inflation expectations, in turn, reduced the rationale for the Federal Reserve to keep rates where they are, pushing down rate expectations and Treasury yields. Because gold does not generate yield, lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding it.
The market repriced quickly. Traders trimmed the probability of another Fed rate hike by December to around 12% from 16% the previous day, with gold pricing in the change within roughly two hours, reaching a two-week high before lunch.
In the afternoon, the same linkage reversed. Spot Brent crude climbed back above $105 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate pushed toward $96 after reports indicated U.S.-Iran negotiations remained fragile. Iran said it was still reviewing the U.S. proposal. President Trump also warned that military action could intensify if Tehran rejected the agreement.
As oil recovered, Treasury yields moved higher and traders reduced bullish exposure ahead of Friday’s U.S. employment data. The afternoon reversal in crude was mirrored by gold’s pullback from its highs.
Gold’s broader demand picture also received attention. China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for an eighteenth straight month, raising holdings to 74.64 million fine troy ounces at the end of March. The article emphasized that this level of central bank buying is not likely to disappear quickly even if oil swings in the short term.
Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The article framed two potential paths for markets:
Thursday’s late-session reversal was described as setting up a market without strong conviction going into Friday, making the payrolls outcome particularly important.
Technically, the article noted that the main chart trend remains down, while the minor trend is up, supporting some upside momentum. Key levels cited include:
The article also highlighted that this week’s price action found support at $4,501.04 (just above the 50% level at $4,495.33) and held $4,481.78, described as a line separating bull and bear market conditions. It further cited a 61.8% level at $4,401.84 as final support.
The 50-day moving average at $4,790.70 was presented as the key level for determining whether Thursday’s move was a meaningful step forward or temporary noise. Gold touched $4,764.01 and backed off, leaving it about $26 below the 50-day. The article suggested that a clean push through the 50-day could open the door to the retracement zone between $4,850.68 and $5,028.04, while a stall would likely keep the market in a range.
With Friday’s payrolls expected to be decisive, the article concluded that the $4,495.33 to $4,401.84 value zone held this week and buyers showed up as expected, but whether gold can move above the 50-day will depend on the employment data outcome.
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