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Hoa Phat Agriculture expects 2026 profit to fall by 37% to more than VND 1 trillion, citing intensifying Middle East conflicts, disease risks, and the sector’s cyclical pattern.
At the annual general meeting held for the first time since the company’s listing on April 21, shareholders asked why Hoa Phat Agriculture set a downward business plan for 2026. The company targets revenue of VND 7,200 billion and net profit after tax of VND 1,005 billion, representing declines of 11% and 37%, respectively, compared with the previous year.
In the report to shareholders, CEO Pham Thi Hong Van said some investors may be “shocked” by the figures, but the business scenario was built on cautious assessments of the market context. She noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significantly affected the livestock sector.
Ms. Van said that after the conflicts, oil prices fluctuated sharply in March, driving up logistics costs and imports of production materials. She added that fertilizer prices also rose alongside energy prices, which in turn affected corn and soybean cultivation—the main ingredients used for animal feed.
Chairman Nguyen Viet Thang said energy prices have risen recently but have not fully reflected in the economy in Q1. He pointed to risks that may emerge with a lag due to remaining inventory, especially gasoline.
In Q2 and Q3, Thang forecast that the impact of the gasoline story would become clearer, potentially putting pressure on the inflation index. In that context, production costs are likely to rise, which could support pig prices by 7–8%.
Thang said the company could raise pig selling prices, but this would still depend on supply-demand conditions. He also highlighted a characteristic of the pig industry: Q3 typically has the lowest prices, while Q4 and Q1 are more favorable. The 2026 plan was developed to align with these seasonal factors.
Beyond market factors, Hoa Phat Agriculture’s leadership said disease risk remains a major challenge in 2026. African swine fever (ASF) is still not fully controlled. In Vietnam, the disease has progressed more complicatedly than in some regional countries due to the emergence of a recombinant strain between type 1 and type 2—described as highly virulent and prolonged—creating an ongoing unknown for the industry.
The company also noted that the livestock sector shows clear cyclicality, with peak phases in 2015, 2020, and 2025. It said the 2026 plan construction has taken this pattern into account.
Despite the challenges, Ms. Van said the company has advantages, including a closed-loop farming platform oriented toward biosafety. She said that if a new disease arises, its impact on operations is not expected to be significant.
Sharing quarterly results, Hoa Phat Agriculture leadership reported Q1 2026 revenue of VND 1,813 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year. Gross profit also declined by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026. After costs, the company earned VND 345 billion in after-tax profit, equivalent to 34.3% of the annual plan.
According to the CEO, Q1 2026 results were lower than the same period last year mainly due to pig prices and production volume. The average pig price in Q1 2025 was around VND 67,000–70,000 per unit, while Q1 2026 was VND 66,000. Production output also fell because the My Duc farm had just completed renovations.
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