Hormuz Strait reopening not enough to restore full trade flows amid ongoing US-Iran tensions

After the collapse of US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Washington announced a blockade on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports starting April 13. Even so, ships that do not call at Iranian ports can still pass through the Hormuz Strait, but traffic has not yet returned to normal. Security risks remain elevated as Iran tightens control in the area, discouraging shipping lines and insurers from resuming Gulf operations. To restore the flow of goods, it is not enough for fully loaded vessels to leave the Gulf; empty ships also need to return to pick up the next cargo.

Ceasefire confidence remains limited

Analysts say that during the fragile two-week ceasefire, carriers, shipowners and insurers are unlikely to rush ships back into the Persian Gulf, fearing vessels could become stuck again. Lale Akoner, global market analyst at the trading platform eToro, said oil tankers, shipowners and insurers will not risk sending ships back into the Gulf unless they are confident vessels can depart safely rather than be stranded for weeks or longer.

“A two-week ceasefire, and a fragile one at that, in my view will not provide the confidence necessary for maritime operators,” Ms. Akoner told CNN.

Loaded ships clearing the strait may not be enough

If no additional ships enter the Gulf to receive oil, fertilizer and other essentials, the benefit from hundreds of loaded ships clearing the Strait would be temporary. Shortages and high prices for oil and many other goods could persist for months.

Oil tanker bottleneck: fewer ships willing to transit

To normalize goods movement, vessels already stuck in the Gulf must be able to depart safely. However, Matt Smith, commodity analyst at Kpler, said that has not yet happened. “Hardly anyone is confident enough to pass through Hormuz,” Smith said, estimating that daily oil tankers through Hormuz normally number just over 100, but are now around 10, or even fewer.

Smith added that even if markets gain more trust in the ceasefire, early shipments are likely to be tankers leaving the Gulf rather than empty ships entering to pick up fresh cargo. He estimated about 400 loaded oil tankers are waiting outside, while only about 100 empty ships are ready to move in to take on cargo. “Even if the strait were opened today, oil flows would not be back to normal until July,” he said.

Container shipping and fertilizer exports at risk

The same imbalance affects container ships, which are important for delivering food and other essential goods to Gulf economies, as well as for exporting items such as fertilizer and industrial plastics to global markets. Peter Tirschwell, vice president for maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said about 100 container ships are waiting to depart, but almost none are waiting to enter.

That suggests roughly 30% of global fertilizer exports typically shipped from the region could be stuck for months until more ships become available to carry cargo. Tirschwell said current freight capacity does not readily allow rerouting of this volume.

Broader production constraints

Experts warned that without additional ships passing through Hormuz into the Gulf to receive cargo, production of many Gulf-region goods—from crude oil and fuels to fertilizers—will continue to be hindered. Smith said the situation has persisted for six weeks as producers in the region run out of warehouse space.

“Producers around the Gulf are used to pumping oil onto ships and sending goods away. To lift output, they need not just time but also ready tanker capacity to load cargo and unlock supply,” he added.