•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
To sustain high growth in the medium term, Vietnam’s total social investment may need to reach around 40% of GDP each year. Given the current size of the economy, this implies hundreds of billions of USD in annual investment flows, with the cumulative stock potentially reaching trillions of USD over many years.
The central issue is no longer whether capital is needed, but how Vietnam’s financial system will mobilize, allocate, and manage risks associated with this scale of funding. The challenge spans banking, the stock market, and investors’ capital allocation strategies.
Banks remain the primary conduit of capital. However, when funding needs rise to this magnitude, pressure on banks’ balance sheets increases substantially. If credit growth continues to lead, banks face tighter constraints tied to capital adequacy ratio (CAR), asset quality, and maturity mismatches—particularly when short-term funds are used to finance long-term projects.
These constraints are not theoretical. Recently, Tran Hung Huy, Chairman of ACB, said Vietnam’s domestic banking system is currently too thin to carry large-scale infrastructure projects such as the North–South high-speed railway, estimated at $67 billion. The implication is that in a new growth cycle, banks cannot remain the sole backbone of funding.
This points to a need for a multi-tier financial structure that combines credit and equity financing. It also reflects a persistent bottleneck: the financial structure remains heavily skewed toward bank lending, while long-term funding channels have not developed deeply enough.
Against this backdrop, the role of the capital market—especially the bond and equity markets—becomes pivotal. If banks are the “spine,” the capital market is expected to act as a “buffer” to absorb mid- and long-term financing needs.
The corporate bond market, despite having undergone a strong adjustment, remains an indispensable component. An economy with large investment demand cannot rely solely on bank credit.
For the bond market to function effectively as a funding channel, the article highlights the need to continue strengthening transparency, credit ratings, and the legal framework.
The stock market could benefit if investment flows translate into higher revenue and profits for listed companies. Sectors directly linked to investment—such as construction, materials, infrastructure, and energy—could become focal points in major capital cycles.
At the same time, opportunities may be dispersed. Not every company will be able to convert a macro investment story into real business performance.
Another balancing factor is foreign capital. As domestic capital demand rises, attracting and efficiently using FDI, along with foreign indirect flows (FII), becomes part of the overall equation.
In a positive scenario, Vietnam could leverage its position in the global supply chain to attract long-term capital. In a more cautious scenario, the article notes that regional competition and geopolitical volatility could reduce the stability of these flows.
From a market perspective, the key question is whether the current financial system is prepared for a cycle of deeper capital at large scale.
On one hand, reforms over the years—such as bank restructuring and developing the stock market—have created a substantial foundation. On the other hand, the scale and pace of capital demand in the upcoming period may exceed what the system has previously experienced.
For investors, the article argues that attention should extend beyond growth indicators to the “capital path”: which channel capital flows through, which companies can access capital at reasonable costs, and which sectors genuinely translate investment into profits.
In a cycle where total investment could reach 40% of GDP, the story is not only about high growth, but about growth financed by the prevailing capital structure. The answer to that question will shape both opportunities and risks across Vietnam’s financial markets in the years ahead.
In short, behind hundreds of billions of USD each year lies not only growth ambition, but also a stress test of the financial system’s ability to mobilize, allocate, and absorb capital. For investors, understanding this test may be as important as forecasting mid-term GDP growth.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
