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Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded inflows for a third consecutive month, while gold ETFs continue to struggle to recover from outflows following the Iran conflict, JPMorgan analysts said. The bank’s view is that this pattern indicates retail investors are increasingly favoring bitcoin (BTC) over gold as a “debasement trade” since the start of the conflict.
JPMorgan said the “debasement trade rotates from gold to bitcoin.” The debasement trade refers to investors buying assets such as gold or bitcoin to hedge against weakening fiat currencies, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension or inflation concerns.
Earlier in March, the analysts also highlighted a sharp divergence in flows between bitcoin and gold ETFs after the Iran conflict began.
JPMorgan said bitcoin demand is not limited to retail investors via ETFs. Its positioning proxies—based on CME bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures—have also reached new highs, which the analysts said points to increased institutional exposure.
The bank further noted that momentum signals for bitcoin and gold, used as proxies for positioning by momentum traders such as commodity trading advisors, have rebounded for bitcoin since the start of the Iran conflict.
Investors are also buying bitcoin indirectly through Michael Saylor’s Strategy, JPMorgan said. The firm’s ownership is described as almost equally split between retail and institutional investors. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of bitcoin globally and has been accumulating bitcoin at a faster pace this year.
JPMorgan estimated that if Strategy’s current accumulation pace continues, its bitcoin buying could reach around $30 billion this year.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,120, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.
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