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Gold prices saw a modest rebound after SPDR Gold Trust shifted from recent net selling to a small net purchase, while investors continued to weigh developments in peace talks amid the US-Iran conflict.
The reversal came after SPDR had a streak of 11 net-selling sessions out of the last 13, with the remaining two sessions flat. According to Muavangbac.vn, SPDR Gold Trust recorded a net buy of 0.3 tonnes of gold in the May 7 session, bringing total gold holdings to more than 1,033 tonnes.
Kitco data showed spot gold closed on May 7 at $4,687 per ounce, down 0.08%. During the session, gold briefly traded above $4,700 per ounce, but profit-taking pressure pushed prices back down.
Market participants remained cautious, focusing on the latest developments in peace talks related to the US-Iran conflict. The article noted that if the conflict ends, oil prices would likely fall, easing global inflation pressures and allowing central banks to continue cutting rates. If the conflict continues, downside pressure on gold would persist.
It also highlighted that gold’s performance has been influenced by monetary policy expectations. The article said the price of oil remains high, supporting inflation and prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider its easing stance. As a result, the market has started to price out the likelihood of rate cuts this year.
Although the article said there is still a long way to go to reclaim key price levels, an investment bank forecast higher gold prices by year-end. In Morgan Stanley Research’s latest metals and mining note, Amy Gower, a metals and mining strategist, reiterated that gold is expected to finish the year around $5,200 per ounce—about 10% above the current price.
Gower said she was not surprised by the recent decline in gold prices despite rising geopolitical tensions. She attributed the move to the conflict creating an energy-supply shock that reduces expectations for US rate cuts, making it less surprising that gold struggled to fulfill its typical safe-haven role.
The article added that Morgan Stanley still expects at least one rate cut this year, which it said would support higher gold prices.
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