Market View 23/04: VN-Index fluctuates around 1,860–1,870 points

Market View 23/04: VN-Index fluctuates around 1,860–1,870 points According to ASEANSAC, the high-probability scenario for the 23/04 session is that the VN-Index will continue to hover around the 1,860–1,870 level. If the index decisively breaks through this band with improved liquidity and better breadth, the index could head toward 1,880–1,900. Conversely, a failure at the resistance would place near-term support at around 1,832–1,835. Avoid chasing rallies TPS: After the 22/04 close, the VN-Index continued to show a positive gain and maintain the uptrend. However, liquidity has been tightening for two weeks, and the index remains overly dependent on heavyweight stocks. The market picture is not as positive as the index suggests. The VN-Index is hovering around resistance at 1,850–1,870 with momentum indicators in overbought territory and liquidity waning, indicating potential for a correction. Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing at highs, maintain a safe cash position, and await safer deployment opportunities in a potential pullback. Take advantage of the pullback VCBS: The VN-Index reversed intraday on 22/04 with broad swings, driven mainly by VinGroup; liquidity was largely unchanged from 21/04, with more decliners than advancers, signaling a more differentiated market. In this context, VCBS recommends investors take advantage of pullbacks or oscillations from 23/04 to test-buy, focusing on groups that have built a base at deep discount levels or those that have just broken out from bases. Rung lac quanh vung 1,860–1,870 AseanSC: Technically, the VN-Index remains in a constructive short-term uptrend, closing at 1,857.30, with a candle showing demand absorbing the early-session pullback and pushing the index toward the day’s high. Staying above key moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20 and MA50 supports the near-term uptrend; however, breadth is more divergent as gains are primarily led by large-cap names while breadth is not yet broad-based. From a practical standpoint, AseanSC notes that the current price level no longer offers a high edge for new purchases since the index has risen quickly and is approaching resistance around 1,860–1,870; RSI(14) at about 69.30 is near overbought, and liquidity has not expanded accordingly. The high-probability scenario for 23/04 is that the VN-Index will continue to fluctuate around 1,860–1,870. If it decisively breaks through with improved liquidity and better breadth, it could target 1,880–1,900; otherwise, near-term support is around 1,832–1,835. As a result, ASEANSC recommends keeping stock exposure at 65–80%, prioritizing long positions that are stronger than the market, avoiding chasing rallies in heavyweight stocks or those that have surged, and only increasing exposure on pullbacks that hold a base or show a confirmed breakout with liquidity and breadth. For medium- to long-term investors, continue to hold core portfolios, deploy gradually during pullbacks, but avoid over-allocating while the market remains bifurcated near a short-term resistance. Trade cautiously BSC: The market’s rise depends on a small group of stocks, lacking sustainability. Investors should trade cautiously. More cautious sentiment SHS: The VN-Index’s near-term trend is up with support around 1,820; the index could test the day’s high and the trendline connecting the highs of Jan and Feb 2026. If the market continues to rise, it could enter short-term overbought territory within a few sessions from 23/04. After 21/04’s decline with rising liquidity, 22/04 saw slow trading with liquidity easing, though the VN-Index still rose, indicating a divergence with most sectors which underperformed the VN-Index and leading real estate stocks. Near-term liquidity is weaker; investors should be cautious as the US–Iran ceasefire is expected to end on 22/04 and Hormuz tensions persist could push oil higher again. Also, after the Q1 earnings season, a long holiday break could lead to information gaps and dampen investor sentiment, reducing liquidity. For investors still leveraging high, SHS suggests restructuring weak stocks.