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Markets are currently priced attractively, with Vietcombank Fund Management (VCBF) pointing to five sectors it views as having high growth potential. The fund argues Vietnam can pursue double-digit growth supported by three pillars: reforms to institutions and the legal framework to unlock resources; accelerated public investment backed by remaining fiscal space; and further development of the domestic capital market to provide long-term funding. VCBF also maintains caution around stocks linked to VinGroup.
VCBF said Vietnam’s growth outlook can be supported by three policy directions discussed at its 2026 annual investor conference, where open-end funds under the manager reviewed macro and market prospects, along with opportunities and risks.
First, VCBF highlighted robust reforms to institutions and the legal framework to mobilize resources.
Second, the fund pointed to greater public investment supported by remaining fiscal space. By the end of 2025, Vietnam’s public debt was about 35–36% of GDP, well below the 60% cap, leaving room for continued public investment.
Third, VCBF emphasized the need to further develop the capital market to provide long-term funding for large investment needs. It noted that credit growth reached around 145% of GDP at end-2025, implying the economy cannot rely solely on bank credit and must strengthen capital-market channels.
VCBF also cited that by 2025 total social investment was about 4.2 quadrillion dong, or more than 30% of GDP. If Vietnam continues to push investment, the fund estimated capital needs could exceed 9 quadrillion dong per year by 2030.
On questions about the impact on the secondary market, VCBF said both bonds and equities could benefit. The fund noted that banks rely mainly on short-term deposits, while investment projects often require longer durations—especially infrastructure projects with terms of up to 20–30 years—making long-term funding channels such as equities and bonds important.
VCBF said the stock market size is about 80% of GDP, while the government targets raising it to 120% of GDP. It added that this could nearly triple market capitalization and encourage more firms to list, expanding investment opportunities for funds.
For bonds, VCBF said the market remains small at about 10% of GDP, significantly below peers such as Thailand and China, making bond-market expansion a target.
VCBF said raising the market’s status also depends on upgrading Vietnam’s credit rating. Vietnam’s current BB+ rating is just below investment grade; an upgrade to investment grade would support international fundraising and could enable Vietnamese companies to borrow at lower costs.
VCBF said near-term challenges include the Middle East conflict and rising domestic rates, but it expects long-term growth to remain supported by factors including foreign direct investment (FDI), international tourism, public investment, private-sector growth, improved public-sector efficiency, and increased investment in technology.
Based on this view, VCBF identified five sectors:
VCBF also pointed to potential for increased foreign fund flows and a growing bond market as supportive themes for the sector outlook.
On valuation, VCBF said the VN-Index P/E is currently around 15x, close to the 10-year average. Excluding VinGroup (P/E about 150x), the rest of the market trades at roughly 12.3x, which the fund described as attractive. VCBF added that many companies in the identified sectors plan meaningful earnings growth this year.
In terms of positioning, VCBF said it continues to maintain a high equity allocation, especially in MGF, BCF, and TBF. It said AIF focuses on companies with attractive, sustainable dividend policies. The fund also said it will continue to avoid investments in firms that could be adversely affected by prolonged conflict, citing BMP if PVC prices rise.
VCBF said it plans to take profits on high-performing stocks and redeploy capital into higher-growth opportunities. During a market pullback in March linked to Middle East tensions, it said it deployed capital, with cash levels across funds around 4–7%.
At the conference, an investor asked when the market’s skew toward several large stocks—especially VinGroup—would end. VCBF said VIC and VHM together account for about 30% of the VN-Index, a weight that is difficult to change.
VCBF said it does not invest in overvalued stocks and aims to protect investors’ capital. While it acknowledged VinFast’s achievements, it flagged competition risk from international EV players. VinGroup, VinFast, and Vinhomes remain on the watchlist for potential investments if conditions improve.
Nguyen Thi Hang Nga, CEO of VCBF, said VinGroup’s market cap is around 1.7 quadrillion dong, while total personal deposits in the banking system are about 8 quadrillion dong, underscoring the scale of VinGroup’s valuation and the need to evaluate valuations relative to fundamentals. She added that even with strong growth narratives, VCBF frames them in relation to company valuation.
Related stocks mentioned include BCF, BMP, MSN, MWG, PVC, VHM, and VIC.
VCBF’s overall conclusion was that the market is priced attractively, and its five-sector watchlist offers investors data-driven areas to monitor amid ongoing reforms and capital-market development.
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