MB Securities: Domestic stock market receives a double boost as VN-Index eyes 1,770 points

MB Securities (MBS) said the Vietnamese stock market is getting a “double boost” as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East move from a temporary détente toward a more durable settlement. One driver is international—an announced US–Iran ceasefire that helps reduce geopolitical risk and coincides with global stock markets rising. The second driver is domestic, including streamlining senior leadership, an FTSE upgrade, and monetary policy easing: 17 banks cut interest rates over two days, with several tenors trimmed by up to 1% per year after a meeting between the State Bank of Vietnam and commercial banks on April 9.

Outlook: rebound supported by policy and market structure

MBS projects the overall backdrop is tilting toward a continued rebound as the government implements measures to sustain economic growth. The VN-Index has formed a double bottom around the MA200, and the market has been led by leading stocks. MBS also pointed to the ongoing annual general meeting season and a pipeline of earnings reports expected to be released soon.

Key challenge: profit-taking near 1,760–1,770

Despite the positive setup, MBS expects the market to face a challenge in the 1,760–1,770 area due to profit-taking pressure. After three weeks of gains, profit margins are described as relatively favorable, creating an opportunity for investors to rebalance portfolios toward market-oriented stocks.

Liquidity and sector rotation

On liquidity and sector trends, MBS said weekly liquidity was at a level similar to the prior week, but remains among the lowest since the start of the year. The research team noted that capital continues to rotate away from commodity and defensive stocks toward market-oriented areas, including residential real estate, stocks, and sectors tied to the economy’s cycle or internal drivers such as banks, public investment, Vingroup, and construction and building materials.

Technical levels and scenarios

MBS said the VN-Index rebound has been led by specific stocks, providing the catalyst for the index to push through a key resistance near 1,770. The firm expects the 1,763–1,768 zone to determine the market’s direction in the coming weeks.

• Positive scenario: the index breaks through the 1,763–1,768 zone.
• Cautious scenario: a correction similar to the two previous instances (October and early December 2025).

In MBS’s view, current resistance is around 1,768, while support is at 1,720.

Trading strategy: buy/rebalance on pullbacks

For trading strategy, MBS recommended that investors prioritize buying or rebalancing portfolios during pullbacks toward the 1,720–1,730 support zone, rather than chasing prices during strong upswings—particularly when the VN-Index is above 1,768. The firm suggested focusing on mid-cap stocks or sectors that attract capital, including securities, real estate, banks, construction and building materials, and Vingroup.