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Oil and natural gas markets steadied as geopolitical risk eased and traders refocused on supply, demand, and inventory conditions. On Tuesday, May 12, 2026, crude futures were relatively steady following what appeared to be a sustained truce between the US and Iran, now in place for more than a month, with shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire has reduced the immediate geopolitical overhang that contributed to a spike in prices in March and early April, allowing the market to return to more traditional fundamentals.
WTI and Brent were trading with the global picture becoming clearer. There were no major disruptions to supply flows from oil-producing regions. US supply levels remain relatively high, while OPEC+ is slowly bringing production back and repairs are underway in affected areas. Even with the truce holding, the supply situation is described as not yet back to normal.
Natural gas traded higher on Friday, supported by ample gas storage in the US and Europe amid milder spring weather patterns. The truce has also reduced the risk of supply disruption on Middle East shipments, contributing to lower prices for LNG in the global spot market. However, continued strong demand growth from major gas-consuming countries in Asia and Europe could keep natural gas prices supported in the medium term.
Market participants are expected to monitor US gas and oil inventory levels and any changes in OPEC+ policy for signals on the next move. While the truce has temporarily removed supply-shock risk for both oil and natural gas, the situation could change quickly.
Natural Gas (NG) was trading at $2.924 on the 4-hour chart, inside a descending channel from April highs. Recent price action reclaimed the red moving average around $2.93, but trading remained below the $2.945 resistance level, with upper wicks appearing on the move. Price was described as respecting lower highs, with support near $2.90 from the lower boundary of the descending channel.
Downside targets from the May swing low fib extensions were cited at $2.768 and $2.676 if those levels are broken. The RSI was hovering near 48, indicating momentum near neutral. The volume profile pointed to $2.93 as a key supply zone, and price was characterized as bearish below $2.945.
Trade idea: Sell $2.924, target $2.768, stop $2.95.
WTI crude oil traded at $100.99 on the 4-hour chart after strong green engulfing candles emerged from a $99.18 low and pushed price back above the red 50-period moving average. Price was described as bouncing within a blue ascending channel formed from April lows, with the channel preserving higher lows. The bullish continuation candle bodies moved above the $100 pivot, while RSI was reported to have reclaimed momentum above 52. A fib retracement from the May swing low indicated $100.65 as the defended 38.2% level.
Immediate overhead resistance was identified at $101.47, followed by a key resistance area between $103 and $105 near the top of the ascending channel. The volume profile indicated $100 as a new dynamic floor, with aggressive buyers absorbing supply. The structure was described as bullish above $99.18, with price continuing to respect channel support.
Trade idea: Buy $100.95, target $103.00, stop $99.50.
Brent crude oil traded at $106.84 on the 4-hour chart after a pullback to $107.29. Green candles were described as defending the lower line of a blue ascending channel. Price action tested the 0.382 fib level at $103.26, but subsequent rejection wicks were cited as confirming buyer defense around $106. The market was described as respecting higher lows, with the red moving average acting as dynamic support. RSI was hovering near 50, with no major bearish divergence confirmed.
Next targets were cited at the 0.5 fib level ($105.55) and then $107.85 as channel resistance. The volume profile highlighted $107 as a key pivot level. The uptrending blue ascending channel from the April lows was described as intact above $103.24.
Trade idea: Buy $106.80, target $107.85, stop $105.50.
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