OPEC oil production falls to a record low in March 2026

OPEC crude oil production fell to a record low in March 2026 as conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil exports from key member countries within the bloc.

Record production drop

According to official OPEC data, the organization’s total crude oil production declined by 7.88 million barrels per day to 20.79 million bpd in March 2026, a drop of about 27%. OPEC said the decline was mainly driven by reductions in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. The size of the fall was described as the largest in OPEC’s monthly statistics dating back to the 1980s.

Hormuz Strait disruption

The conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran has led to the Hormuz Strait—an essential waterway in the Persian Gulf—being closed by Iran for more than six weeks.

The disruption of traffic through Hormuz forced oil producers in the region to cut back pumping activities. OPEC also pointed to damage to oil and gas infrastructure in several Gulf countries from Iran’s missile and drone attacks.

Price impact and inflation risk

The supply disruption from the Middle East has pushed world oil prices above $100 per barrel. OPEC said this has lifted the prices of downstream oil products including aviation fuel, diesel, and gasoline, raising concerns about a new wave of inflation in the global economy.

OPEC Secretariat reporting, as described in the article, did not mention the Hormuz Strait or its closure.

US actions and negotiation prospects

On April 13, the United States began blockading the Hormuz Strait, preventing ships from entering or leaving Iran’s ports while facilitating passage for ships bound for non-Iranian ports. At the same time, the United States left open the possibility of negotiating with Iran to reach a peace agreement.

Largest monthly declines by country

OPEC said the March decline surpassed the previous record drop of 6.28 million bpd recorded in May 2020, when the OPEC+ alliance (including non-OPEC partners such as Russia) cut output as global fuel demand fell during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Iraq recorded the largest March decline, down 2.56 million bpd to 1.63 million bpd, according to OPEC. Saudi Arabia followed with a decline of 2.31 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd.

Demand outlook and OPEC+ policy

In its latest report, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for Q2 2026 by 500,000 bpd. The organization said world oil demand would rise in the second half of the year, leaving its full-year demand forecast unchanged.

Before the US-Iran war began on February 28, OPEC+ had reversed the production cuts implemented over the past years. In an online meeting on April 5, OPEC+ continued to raise the production quota by 206,000 bpd for May. The article described the move as largely symbolic given the current context. The bloc’s next production meeting is scheduled for May 3.

Market reaction

Analysts cited in the article said it remains unclear whether the US blockade of the Hormuz Strait will improve energy flows from the Gulf sooner. However, the prospect of negotiating with Iran is helping to keep oil prices below $100 per barrel.

As of April 14, oil prices fell after US Vice President JD Vance said the next step in peace negotiations depends on Iran. Brent futures in London and WTI futures in New York were trading around $97-98 per barrel.