Polymarket traders see XRP staying range-bound into end of April, with $1.40 most likely price

Prediction market data from Polymarket shows that traders expect XRP to remain largely range-bound heading into the end of April, with probabilities clustering around mid-level price targets rather than the widely watched $2 level.

Polymarket probabilities point to a narrow trading range

Markets are forecasting that XRP’s price will likely cluster around mid-level targets, suggesting the much-sought $2 mark may not be reached soon. The highest probability outcome is $1.40, which carries a 65% chance and is the most favored scenario among traders.

Close behind, $1.20 holds a 56% probability, reinforcing expectations that XRP will trade within a relatively narrow band near current levels.

Outside this range, confidence drops. The probability of XRP reaching $1.60 is 20%, while a move down to $1 is priced at 15%, indicating that downside risk remains even if the base case is range-bound.

Higher price targets appear increasingly unlikely, with $1.80 at 6% and $2 at just 2%. Levels above $2.20 attract roughly a 1% probability each.

On the lower end, bearish scenarios carry limited weight. A drop to $0.80 is assigned a 5% chance, while deeper declines below $0.60 register around 1% or less, suggesting markets do not expect a major breakdown.

Cause and development: weak catalysts and reliance on broader crypto

These projections also align with the broader cryptocurrency market outlook, as XRP has recently traded in tandem with overall market trends. The asset has not built on specific catalysts for price movement and has instead relied heavily on Bitcoin’s direction.

The situation has been compounded by XRP’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) market slipping back into negative territory, reflecting persistent weakness in institutional demand.

Data: ETF outflows and recent price performance

Recent data indicates that XRP-linked funds recorded a net weekly outflow of $3.56 million. This marks the first withdrawal of April and breaks a brief two-week streak of positive inflows.

That downturn follows earlier gains, when the funds attracted approximately $636,480 and $2.66 million in consecutive weeks, suggesting that recent selling pressure has outweighed prior momentum.

Meanwhile, XRP traded largely in the red over the past week. By press time, XRP was trading at $1.31, down about 0.3% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeframe the asset is down nearly 2%.

Impact and analysis: technical signals remain bearish

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading below both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.41 and its 200-day SMA of $2.06, pointing to sustained bearish pressure across both the short and long term.

Trading below the 50-day average suggests weak near-term momentum, while the wide gap beneath the 200-day SMA highlights a broader downtrend that has yet to show signs of reversal.

On momentum, the 14-day RSI stands at 38.95, placing it in neutral territory but leaning toward the lower end. This indicates that while XRP is not yet oversold, selling pressure remains dominant, with limited bullish strength emerging.