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ABS’s recent report assesses Vietnam’s stock market as relatively positive in the near term, while the long-term trend remains upward. After the previous correction, the medium-term trend has also started to show renewed positive technical signals.
ABS says the VN-Index has successfully formed a bottom in the 1,586–1,606 range, creating a relatively solid price base and a bullish structure. The brokerage characterizes upward momentum as fairly strong, with liquidity showing signs of support and accumulation in several large stock groups in April, including banks, real estate, securities, steel, and transportation.
ABS also notes that cash flow is gradually spreading to medium and small-cap groups. This is viewed as a positive sign, indicating the rally is not limited to a small number of blue-chip stocks but is expanding across more segments of the market.
According to ABS, the positive factor for the medium-term trend became clearer in the second half of April, when the VN-Index broke through the 1,750 area. On the medium-term timeframe, the index is currently above the MA10 weekly moving average, while MACD remains in a bullish crossover—both reinforcing the uptrend. ABS identifies medium-term support at 1,586–1,606.
In the short term, ABS evaluates the trend as up. In April, the VN-Index recorded positive dynamics and formed a structure of higher highs and higher lows. ABS also points to a MACD crossover as evidence of a stronger short-term uptrend.
However, ABS cautions that trading volume has not yet surged, largely due to lingering investor skepticism. Liquidity has started to improve, and ABS says that if the market surpasses the 1,920 level, money flow could change significantly, particularly in the early phase of a price breakout.
On valuation, ABS suggests the market is not overvalued. The VN-Index forward P/E is around 13.4x, close to the long-term average. Excluding the VinGroup stock group, the index P/E is about 10.5x, which ABS considers attractive for medium- to long-term investors.
In May, ABS highlights several positive developments that may improve Vietnam’s appeal to international capital. Moody’s recently raised Vietnam’s sovereign rating outlook from “stable” to “positive.” In addition, the market is expected to be included in MSCI’s Watch List for an upgrade in June 2026, after Vietnam met 10/18 criteria for market accessibility and continued to improve other criteria.
ABS expects domestic liquidity to improve as macro pressures ease. The brokerage also suggests that if Circular 22 is amended with reasonable provisions and implementation timelines, it could support market liquidity in the near term.
For VN-Index’s movement in May 2026, ABS presents a positive scenario: the market could move in a more favorable direction, potentially breaking the old 1,920-point high and then consolidating around the high area as cash flow and liquidity expand. If this scenario materializes, ABS says the index could strengthen its uptrend and move toward the nearest target range of 2,084–2,145.
ABS also cites the idea that market-wide movement and leadership stock segments are reinforcing the proposition that the VN-Index could continue rising toward near-term levels around 1,950–2,018 points.
Despite the constructive outlook, ABS warns that external risks must be monitored, particularly developments related to the Middle East conflict. If tensions persist and weigh on the global economic outlook, ABS says the VN-Index could return to test the 1,750–1,800 support zone. In ABS’s view, such a pullback could be interpreted as a “wash-out” within a broader upward trend, rather than a full reversal.
Ngọc Ly
[Source: Nhịp sống thị trường] 05/10/2026
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