Q1 2026 Corporate Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Growth and the Visibility Gap

Banks kicked off Q1 2026 earnings season yesterday, with Goldman Sachs leading the pack ahead of JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, scheduled to report today. The S&P 500 is projected to deliver its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with EPS expected to rise 12.6%, supported largely by a 45% expansion in the Information Technology sector. Investors are also watching for more corporate guidance withdrawals as companies navigate a second-half outlook affected by geopolitical tensions and volatile energy costs.

Goldman Sachs starts earnings season early

Goldman Sachs reported yesterday, marking the first time the firm has kicked off the earnings season ahead of JPMorgan Chase since 2018. The bank delivered results that comfortably surpassed analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

In its equities division, Goldman Sachs posted record revenues, up 27% to $5.33 billion, driven by strong prime financing. By contrast, FICC (fixed income, currencies & commodities) trading fell 10% year-over-year, reflecting softer market-making conditions in interest rates and mortgages.

Investment banking rebounded, with fees increasing 48% to $2.84 billion, supported by higher completed M&A and debt underwriting activity. To account for wholesale loan impairments, the bank increased its provision for credit losses to $315 million.

Looking ahead, CEO David Solomon highlighted the resilience of the firm’s “Capital Markets Flywheel,” saying the bank is positioned to serve clients as the bull market matures and broadens into more cyclical sectors despite geopolitical headwinds.

S&P 500 targets sixth straight quarter of double-digit EPS growth

For the index, EPS is expected to increase 12.6% year-over-year, which would represent the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth. Revenues are projected to grow 9.8% year-over-year, the highest top-line growth rate since Q3 2022.

FactSet expects nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to post year-over-year EPS gains. Information Technology is forecast to lead with 45.0% growth, followed by Materials at 24.2% and Financials at 15.1%. The sectors expected to decline are Energy (-0.1%), Communication Services (-3.3%) and Health Care (-9.8%).

For the full year 2026, EPS growth is expected to be 17.6%, with revenues forecast to rise 9.0%.

Guidance withdrawals raise “wait-and-see” concerns

Alongside the earnings reports, investors are monitoring a separate trend among consumer-facing companies: the withdrawal of forward-looking guidance. Constellation Brands (STZ) set the tone last week by pulling its long-term outlook, a move seen as consistent with a growing “wait-and-see” approach amid a K-shaped recovery.

The article notes that during the Q1 2025 reporting season, several companies across industries—including airlines (Delta, Frontier) and autos (GM, Stellantis)—withdrew forward-looking guidance due to tariff uncertainty. It also points out that while Delta did not withdraw guidance after reporting a Q1 2026 revenue record on April 8, it issued a cautious Q2 outlook while navigating fuel headwinds.

Q1 2026 earnings wave: timing and volume

The peak weeks of the Q1 earnings season are expected to run from April 27 to May 15, with more than 2,500 reports expected each week. May 7 is predicted to be the most active day, with 1,167 companies scheduled to report.

So far, 48% of companies have confirmed their earnings date out of a universe of 11,000+ global names; the remaining dates are estimated based on historical reporting patterns.