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After a stretch of “hibernation,” Vietnam’s real estate stocks group unexpectedly surged, with multiple tickers rising sharply. The rally—led by Vingroup and Novaland—has revived expectations that the sector’s difficulties may be easing, supported by the view that most Vietnamese property developers are targeting positive growth in 2026.
Vingroup (VIC) became a focal point as the stock repeatedly hit new highs. The rally has brought Vingroup’s market capitalization close to 1.6 quadrillion dong, reinforcing its position as the largest listed company in the market.
Vingroup has set targets of 485,000 billion dong in revenue, up 46% year over year, and 35,000 billion dong in after-tax profit, which is described as having tripled. The group said it is developing across three main pillars while expanding into infrastructure, green energy, and the cultural-industrial sector. It also highlighted plans including 300,000 electric vehicles for VinFast and a large-scale tourism and entertainment push for Vinpearl.
SJ Group (SJS) also drew attention after climbing to its highest level since the start of the year. The move followed the release of its Q1 2026 results: net revenue nearly 317 billion dong (up 122% year over year) and pre-tax profit nearly 220 billion dong (up 2.5 times from 86 billion dong in the same period of 2025).
Thuduc House (TDH) recorded two consecutive ceiling-price sessions, with sell orders fully absorbed. The catalyst cited in the article was the removal of all tax enforcement measures that had lasted five years. The tax authority reportedly canceled prior handling decisions and ended administrative actions including account freezes, invoice stoppages, and restrictions on customs procedures. The article also noted that a delayed payment amount of over 365.5 billion dong arising in the 2020–2025 period was fully cleared, which it said could help the company unwind legal obstacles and gradually restore business operations.
Novaland (NVL) continued to trend upward as it attracted sustained inflows. The stock price rose to 19,300 dong per share, the highest level since August 2025, lifting market capitalization to over 39,500 billion dong. The article said NVL has been acting as a leader in the group’s recovery, after falling close to par value and then rebounding in a “V-shaped” pattern, gaining about 80% in under two months.
It also referenced Novaland’s plan to submit to shareholders: 2026 net revenue of 22,715 billion dong, or 3.26 times the 2025 figure, and an expected return to profitability with after-tax profit of 1,852 billion dong.
Nam Long (NLG) was also highlighted as recovering. The company set targets for 2026 revenue of 7,630 billion dong, up 35% versus 2025, and expected after-tax profit attributable to the parent company of 720 billion dong, up 3%. The article added that excluding one-off income from prior-year capital transfers, core profit is expected to improve more meaningfully.
Looking back, the article attributed the sector’s decline to the State Bank’s directive to curb credit to risky sectors, including real estate. From October 2025 to March 2026, the group reportedly fell continuously. Examples cited included DIC Corp (DIG) down 43% to around 14,000 dong, and near an April low of 12,700 dong after the “black swan” of U.S. tariff policy; Hoang Huy Financial Services (TCH) down 38% to 14,600 dong. It also noted that other real estate names such as NLG, KDH, DXG, CEO, and NVL were among those that suffered.
ACBS said 2026 industry results are expected to be broadly flat, while performance remains heavily dependent on Vinhomes. The article stated that Vinhomes accounted for about 70–90% of sector revenue and 80–90% of profits in 2021–2025. It also cited a projection for the group including Vinhomes, Khang Dien, Nam Long, Dat Xanh, Phat Dat, and Hodeco: total revenue over 170,000 billion dong and net profit around 47,000 billion dong, up 7%, mainly supported by contributions from Vinhomes, Khang Dien, and Phat Dat.
The article said revenue growth largely comes from delivering projects sold in prior years, while profits depend significantly on capital transfer deals. It added that some firms such as Phat Dat and Hodeco may see higher growth, but it would likely be localized.
VCBS noted that 2026 is expected to bring divergence across the market, segments, and real estate companies. With policy easing and higher supply expected this year—especially in mid-segment apartment supply—the article said the price-to-book (P/B) valuation for the real estate group has moved to more reasonable levels. However, it added that future price momentum is expected to be selective rather than broad-based, requiring careful screening across firms.
Hải Giang
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