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Starting from Q2 2026, Rong Viet Securities expects Vietnam’s full market electricity price (FMP) to gradually rise as hydropower supply becomes less abundant than in Q2 and Q3 2025. In Q1 2026, total electricity consumption across the system is estimated at 77.4 billion kWh, up 6.5% year-on-year.
National peak capacity (PMax) increased 6.7% year-on-year, supported by cross-regional transmission line projects completed in H2 2025. Rong Viet Securities highlighted the 500 kV line Quang Trạch – Phố Nối, which improved system dispatch and transmission from the Central region to the North, helping meet high load in the Red River Delta.
By the end of Q1 2026, the brokerage estimates total installed capacity across the system at 89.3 GW, up 8.8% year-on-year. Growth is led by Nhơn Trạch 3 and 4 LNG plants (POW) and onshore and nearshore wind projects.
Hydropower dispatch rose 7.8% to 14.9 TWh, with hydro output staying high due to the lingering La Niña effect. However, Rong Viet Securities expects this effect to end from Q2 2026.
Coal-fired generation dispatch remained flat at 40.6 TWh (-0.3%). The brokerage attributed the subdued coal output to lower demand driven by still-high hydropower supply, while expansion of gas-fired capacity and renewables supports overall energy demand.
Renewable dispatch increased 16% year-on-year. Wind output rose 24.6% year-on-year, supported by a 30% increase in installed renewable capacity. Solar output increased 3.4% year-on-year, helped by improved irradiation conditions.
Gas-fired dispatch rose 15.5% year-on-year, mainly due to Nhơn Trạch 3 and 4. In the first two months of 2026, these plants produced 510 million kWh, equivalent to 15% of gas-fired generation for the period. Excluding this contribution, gas-fired output grew only 3% year-on-year.
Electricity imports also increased, rising 120% year-on-year after the completion of several high-efficiency transmission lines to import power from Laos and China, including the 500 kV Monsoon – Thạnh Mỹ line.
Wholesale market electricity price (FMP) remained unchanged despite an improvement in CAN price. Specifically, the FMP average for EVN/NSMO in the quarter was 1,255 dong/kWh, unchanged from Q1/2025 (-2% year-on-year). CAN rose to 160 dong/kWh (2.2x year-on-year).
Rong Viet Securities said the relatively low price in the quarter was driven by abundant low-cost hydropower supply—especially in January and February—which reduced dispatch from higher-cost sources. It also noted that fuel costs for coal and gas in the first two months remained low.
Starting from Q2 2026, VDSC expects FMP to gradually rise as hydropower supply is no longer as abundant as in Q2 and Q3 2025. The brokerage cited climate forecasts indicating La Niña is expected to end from April 2026, leading to reduced rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region compared with the high level in 2025.
It also expects the ENSO cycle to shift to neutral from Q2 2026, with drier hydrological conditions than in the same period. This is expected to limit hydropower operations and increase dispatch pressure on coal-fired and gas-fired plants.
VDSC expects FMP to rise due to shortages of low-cost hydropower and rising gas prices under the impact of the US/Israel–Iran conflict. The brokerage added that upward pressure on input electricity purchase costs could prompt EVN to adjust retail electricity prices for residential and industrial customers.
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