Russia offers energy-supply assistance to China amid potential shortages

Russia has proposed helping China if the world’s second-largest economy faces an energy-supply shortfall, as the US-Iran conflict disrupts energy markets and drives a supply shock.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia “can certainly fill the resource gap that appears in China and other countries interested in working with us on an equal and mutually beneficial basis,” Interfax reported on April 15. He also said Russia and China have the capacity to withstand the economic impact of the war, which has pushed global energy prices higher.

Lavrov and Xi reaffirm ties in Beijing

Lavrov spoke after a meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 15. The two sides reaffirmed a “friendship and a strategic partnership,” describing the relationship as “unshakeable in any storm.”

China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing and Moscow are advancing substantive energy cooperation on the basis of mutual respect and benefit. CCTV reported that Xi praised the stability of China-Russia relations and pledged to deepen bilateral cooperation, saying that in a volatile international environment, the stability and firmness of ties has “special value.”

Xi urged deeper strategic cooperation, safeguarding the two countries’ legitimate interests, and maintaining unity among Southern Hemisphere partners. He also called for China and Russia to exploit complementary economic strengths, expand cooperation across all fields, and support steady development.

Energy cooperation and negotiations on US-Iran

On the US-Iran conflict, Lavrov said Russia and China support negotiation efforts toward a peaceful solution. The statement comes as the US and Iran seek to restart talks this week.

Lavrov said Russia and China have “the ability to withstand this situation—including resources already used, reserves, and plans in place—to avoid being affected by developments in the Middle East on the global economy and energy markets.”

Market signals: China’s imports and Gulf supply

With abundant natural resources, Russia could become an even more important partner for China if the Middle East conflict persists. China’s crude oil and gas imports declined in March due to tighter Gulf supply, and Saudi Arabia is expected to cut crude shipments to China by about half in May.

While the Gulf conflict has so far had only a modest impact on China’s economy due to Beijing’s energy-security efforts, producer prices in China rose in March after more than three years of declines, attributed to higher input costs.

Russia’s export opportunity

For Russia, the US-Iran conflict could provide an opportunity to expand energy export revenues. CNBC reported that in Q1 this year, 90% of Russia’s crude exports were sold to China and India—two economies heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil before the conflict.

Analysts noted that both Russia and China have an interest in a quick end to the conflict: Iran is a regional ally of Russia, and China relies on Iranian oil imports.

China’s stance and potential leadership visits

China has criticized US military actions in Iran and warned that the conflict could further destabilize the Middle East, while positioning itself as a stabilizing force amid global volatility.

There is also speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin may visit China in May, according to Vedomosti, which would be his first foreign trip of the year. He could visit again in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen.