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Policymakers, market experts, industry leaders and Russian government officials met in Moscow on April 16 for the Moscow Exchange Forum, where speakers—including Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina—focused on “evolving priorities shaping Russia’s financial sector,” covering capital markets, stock markets, market growth and investors.
Nabiullina warned that Russia could face unprecedented labor shortages, citing higher production costs, an overheated economy that is driving inflation, and “a persistent downturn in external conditions affecting both exports and imports.”
The Central Bank’s warning echoed other senior government statements. In December 2025, President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia is experiencing an economic slowdown. In June 2025, Maxim Reshetnikov, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development, said Russia was “on the brink of falling into a recession.”
On April 15, The Moscow Times reported that Putin asked members of the Russian government and the Central Bank to explain why Russia’s economy is underperforming in 2026. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast Russia’s GDP will grow by around 1% in 2026. The World Bank previously reported 0.9% GDP growth in 2025, down from 4% growth in both 2023 and 2024.
The article links Russia’s economic difficulties to the impact of international sanctions since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Atlantic Council’s Russia sanctions database estimates that Russia has lost tens of billions of dollars due to sanctions imposed by the international community. It also notes that hundreds of Russian oligarchs, politicians, business owners and companies have been sanctioned.
Yale University reported that more than 1,000 international companies have suspended or terminated operations in Russia, adding further pressure to economic activity.
Beyond macroeconomic headwinds, the war has affected Russia’s labor supply and civil society. A Carnegie Endowment report says industrial facilities are operating at only 81%, while 73% of Russian enterprises reported labor shortages.
Reuters reported in February that Russian authorities estimate the country needs 2.3 million workers to address labor shortages.
The article attributes part of the labor shortfall to conscription of men into the military. It cites a National Interest report from October 2025 describing multiple conscription cycles since the war began in February 2022, with hundreds of thousands of men called up. It also says the departure of young working men from factories, enterprises and other sectors has contributed to shortages.
In addition, some returning soldiers are unable to return to work due to injuries. The article cites a Center of European Policy Analysis report from January 2025 stating that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are amputees. It also cites a UK Defence Journal report from February estimating roughly 1.3 million casualties during the war.
Emigration has further tightened labor availability. The article cites a Newsweek report from October 2023 saying approximately one million Russians have moved abroad since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. It states that, combined with war-related losses, this amounts to roughly 2.3 million people—matching the Reuters estimate of the workforce gap.
“Russia has already burned through a generation of workers, engineers, and young men who would normally power its economy,” Epshtein said, adding that many have been killed or fled to evade the draft, leading to a “hollowed-out labor force, declining productivity, and a social burden of hundreds of thousands of wounded veterans.”
The article also describes political challenges inside Russia during the war. It says the government has cracked down on opposition figures and citizens who protested the conflict, citing a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty report from October 2025 that “numerous critics of the war are behind bars,” and noting that many opposition figures are in exile.
Garry Kasparov, chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative and a Russian political dissident, said in an interview that Russians who want to break with the regime “have nowhere to go,” and that Putin maintains influence by framing the war as a conflict between Moscow and the West. Kasparov argued that conditions for participation in the “Free World” could accelerate “brain drain” and weaken the regime.
Despite repression and the war’s economic and social costs, the article cites a Levada Center survey from February showing continued public support. It reports that 72% of respondents said they still support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. It also says 57% justified strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while 67% said peace negotiations should begin.
The article further quotes Kasparov saying major political change in Russia has often followed military defeats, referencing 1856, 1905, 1917 and 1989, and arguing that Russia needs to “be cured of its imperial appetite,” which he links to a Ukrainian victory.
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