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Saudi Aramco warned that global onshore fuel inventories, including gasoline and jet fuel, could fall to “severe lows” ahead of the summer if the Hormuz Strait remains closed. In remarks on May 11, CEO Amin Nasser said the pace of onshore stock depletion is being “accelerated,” with refined fuels among the most depleted.
Nasser said that since the Iran conflict began and the Hormuz Strait was shut, the world has already lost about 1 billion barrels that would have been supplied to the market. He added that the world could lose a further 100 million barrels per week if Hormuz remains blocked, describing inventory as the “only cushion available today,” but one that has declined significantly.
The comments come as warnings grow that the oil shock linked to the US-Iran conflict may be entering a more complex phase. Oil prices have swung sharply in the past 10 weeks, rising to about $126 per barrel at the end of April before retreating to around $100 recently as the White House seeks a long-term solution.
Aramco said the prolonged closure of Hormuz has forced some Asian nations to cut energy demand, while Western countries have leaned more on commercial and strategic reserves. Nasser also cautioned that traders may be overestimating the amount of oil in storage, noting that many storage figures do not reflect the oil needed to sustain the global market at roughly 100 million barrels per day.
He said global aggregate stock does not fully reflect the tightness of the physical oil market, and that only a portion of world oil stocks is accessible, with the remainder constrained by factors such as pipelines, limited tank space, and other daily operational limits.
On May 11, JPMorgan Chase warned that commercial oil inventories in developed economies could move toward operational strain by early June. The bank said this could limit the world’s ability to absorb the Middle East supply shock by drawing on stockpiles.
JPMorgan analysts said the scenario could increase pressure for the United States to strike a deal with Iran, though the White House and Tehran remain at odds on key terms. The bank added that if no deal is reached, refined-product prices could rise further, amplifying global inflation.
Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s Global Head of Commodities Strategy, said: “We conclude that one way or another, Hormuz will reopen in June.” She cautioned, however, that the market will only trust a clear, credible announcement approved and confirmed by both sides.
Kaneva also warned that the next phase of the shock could resemble “less a traditional crude oil shock and more a refined-fuel crisis.”
The IEA is coordinating the largest-ever release of oil from member countries’ strategic reserves, but Nasser said the impact is limited by how quickly member countries can draw from their stocks. He said that in Europe and the US, the maximum draw from reserves is about 2 million barrels per day.
Nasser previously warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the global economy if the US-Iran war drags on. On May 11, he said if Hormuz remains closed by mid-June, energy markets would stay volatile into next year, adding that disruptions lasting just a few weeks would take longer to rebalance and stabilize the oil market.
Aramco said it could reach a sustainable maximum production of 12 million barrels per day if Hormuz reopens, while other countries would struggle to raise supply quickly.
In its Q1 2026 results, Aramco reported stronger earnings supported by higher oil prices and its ability to shift crude exports from the Gulf to Red Sea terminals. Net profit, adjusted, rose 26% year-on-year to $33.6 billion, beating analysts’ expectations. Revenues increased 7% to $115.5 billion.
The company also announced a $21.9 billion dividend to shareholders. Nasser said Aramco is examining expanding export capacity from Yanbu on the Red Sea, highlighting efforts to reduce dependence on Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s main fiscal engine.
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