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In the semiconductor index (SOX), prior analysis using historical relative strength indicator (RSI) returns suggested average forward performance of -7% for short-term setups, +15% to +25% for intermediate-term setups, and -8% to -26% for long-term setups (see Table 1 in the prior update).
Fast-forward to today: the index fell 6.7% into the April 28 low and has since risen by about 11% from the April 26 high. The move is described as “on track” relative to the prior outlook.
In the earlier update, the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count indicated the index had likely completed a 3rd of a 3rd wave—specifically green W-3 of red W-iii—and was then entering green W-4. The target range cited was $9,700 +/- $200 before a subsequent W-5 could support a move toward $13,000+. After that, the analysis expected a larger 4th and 5th wave (red W-iii and -iv) to begin before the move from the April 2025 low would be considered complete, potentially allowing the index to enter a new bear market.
So far, the EWP count is described as consistent with price action: the index bottomed on April 28 at $9,865 and is now trading around $11,760.
A common misconception about EWP is that it provides rigid, precise market predictions. The article emphasizes that markets are stochastic and probabilistic. Instead of forecasting with certainty, EWP is presented as a structured framework for interpreting price action through recurring, fractal wave patterns driven by collective investor psychology—typically five-wave advances and three-wave corrections.
The framework relies on rules and guidelines (including Fibonacci relationships and wave alternation) and is applied across multiple time scales. Analysts use EWP to outline probable scenarios that are refined as new data emerges, similar to how a weather forecast is updated.
The article also notes that EWP is most effective when combined with other analyses, such as historical studies. A key limitation highlighted is real-time relabeling—such as when wave extensions or complex subdivisions occur—requiring strict adherence to rules, price levels, and ongoing validation against current price action.
Looking ahead, the article states that the larger (red) W-iii is approaching its end, with its 5th of a 5th wave (gray W-v of green W-5) underway. The ideal upside target is given as $12,110 to $12,300. Once that range is reached, the article says the odds of a retracement toward about $10,000 would increase significantly.
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