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Signs of a short-term peak are emerging in the VN-Index after a sustained rally. SHS said the index rose for five weeks, moving from around 1,600 points to near 1,900, raising the risk that the market could form a short-term top.
SHS noted that the market closed April 2026 during a peak period when companies typically hold annual meetings, announce 2026 business plans and release Q1 results. This is also when investors reassess company valuations and the outlook for growth.
In a newly published report, SHS said that as May begins, the market will receive additional macroeconomic data for April, including inflation, imports and exports, and PMI. The data is expected to reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict on businesses and the broader economy.
SHS said market direction in May will be shaped by both risk and positive factors.
SHS said that in April 2026, the VN-Index moved fairly close to the base scenario in its 2026 strategy report. The index recovered strongly, driven by large-cap stocks, particularly VinGroup, returning to around the 1,900-point region.
By the end of April 2026, total market capitalization reached about $419 billion, equivalent to around 82% of 2025 GDP. VN30 capitalization stood at about $249 billion, or 59% of total market capitalization.
VinGroup alone accounted for about $99 billion, nearly 39.7% of VN30 and 23.6% of total market capitalization.
Basic valuation metrics were reported at P/E 15.2x, P/B 2.10x and P/S 1.66x. Excluding VinGroup’s impact, SHS said the rest of the market capitalization was around $320 billion, with P/E near 12.96x, P/B around 1.8x and P/S about 1.4x.
SHS described this as a relatively reasonable valuation for the rest of the market, citing continued earnings growth. The firm said investors may consider accumulation and value opportunities.
SHS warned that after five weeks of gains from around 1,600 to near 1,900, the market faces the risk of forming a short-term top, particularly as the index has returned to levels seen before the decline triggered by the Middle East conflict.
At the same time, SHS said the current VN-Index valuation is not truly attractive relative to the 2026 growth outlook. End-April 2026, the VN-Index forward P/E was about 13.1x, and SHS said this does not appear significantly more attractive compared with regional markets.
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