Solana Price Could Fall to $50 Before Its Next Major Rally Begins

Solana (SOL) is the worst-performing asset in the top five cryptocurrencies, down 33% year-to-date, as buyer interest remains weak despite the broader market’s recent recovery. SOL has repeatedly failed to break above $90, rejecting that level for a sixth time earlier this month, a sign that sellers continue to control price action.

Macro backdrop weighs on altcoins

Investors have been reluctant to rotate capital out of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) into higher-risk segments of the crypto market, with conditions in the Middle East remaining tense. Oil prices have risen above $100 again as the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues.

In the U.S., the PCE Price Index—described as the key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve—rose from 2.8% in February to 3.5% in March. While the reading matched analysts’ expectations, it suggests energy costs are continuing to affect price stability.

Fed signals limit risk-taking

Jerome Powell delivered his last speech as Federal Reserve chair. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged, as expected, but there was a split among governors regarding whether the press release should include language that could be interpreted as more dovish.

Markets no longer expect a rate cut this year, largely because higher energy costs are expected to keep inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target. The article links this environment to weaker performance in risk assets and reduced willingness to take excessive risk.

On-chain data points to weaker demand

On-chain indicators show declining network activity. SOL’s network usage fell again last week, marking the ninth consecutive week of lower transaction volumes. The metric is now 32% below its recent peak of 959 million transactions processed during the weekend ended on February 8.

Trading volumes also remain thin. Last week, $22 billion worth of SOL was traded—about half the volume seen during the April–September 2025 bull market and roughly 20% of the levels recorded when SOL’s price was rallying at its strongest pace.

The article characterizes the data as consistent with weak organic spot buying, low derivatives demand (futures), depressed sentiment, and limited interest in altcoins more broadly.

RSI suggests a potential turn, but price remains stuck

On the weekly chart, the article highlights a historical Relative Strength Index (RSI) pattern that previously preceded strong rallies. In November 2022, SOL’s weekly RSI reached 30 when the token traded at $13. Three months later, it fell to $9, and when RSI recovered and moved above the 14-week moving average, one of Solana’s strongest bullish cycles began.

That earlier cycle saw SOL rise from $9 to $22, delivering a 190% gain in one month. The article also notes that a later move produced an approximately 2,400% gain for those who sold near $250.

For the current setup, the article states that SOL’s RSI returned to 30 in February and crossed above the signal line (the 14-week moving average) in mid-April. However, it adds that the latest rally has not shown the same explosive price behavior as in 2022.

Key levels: consolidation, then downside risk

To support a bullish position, the article says SOL would likely need a strong move to $100, but it argues that the catalyst is unclear given the current macro conditions and the lack of an obvious improvement in geopolitical risk strong enough to drive a rally.

On the daily chart, SOL is described as consolidating between $77 and $90 for two months. Bulls attempted to break above $90, but selling followed quickly, and the ceiling has held since then.

With the market unable to sustain upside, the article expects a decline toward $77 as it searches for liquidity to push SOL higher. It also points to 2022 as a reference case, when SOL moved from $13 to $9 to find liquidity before rallying, suggesting that if history repeats, SOL could fall into the low $50s before its next major move begins.