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Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) is set to report first-quarter earnings on April 28, with Jefferies analysts describing the setup as generally positive. The firm maintained a “Buy” rating on the music streaming company.
Jefferies has a $650 price target for Spotify. The stock traded up nearly 5% to about $498 on Monday afternoon.
The analysts expect near-term results to benefit from continued gross margin momentum. They cite typical seasonal strength in Q1 margins and additional support from recent pricing actions in the United States.
Jefferies forecasts potential for Q2 gross margins to rise to around 33.6% or higher, above Street expectations of approximately 33.1%. The firm attributes the outlook to seasonality and the full-quarter impact of price increases.
Jefferies also suggested that wholesale and retail pricing changes may provide a more pronounced benefit in the second quarter as their effects fully flow through.
On revenue and subscriber trends, Jefferies does not anticipate major surprises in either Q1 or Q2. It expects Q1 revenue growth to come in broadly in line with guidance.
Subscriber additions are seen as slightly ahead of internal expectations, consistent with historical patterns in which early-year guidance has tended to be conservative.
For Q2, the firm expects revenue guidance to align with consensus estimates. It noted that subscriber guidance, even if modestly below Street expectations, would likely not be viewed as a material concern given prior-year patterns.
Investor attention is expected to extend beyond the earnings release to Spotify’s upcoming Analyst Day. Jefferies highlighted artificial intelligence as a key area of interest.
The firm pointed to potential updates on commercial agreements related to AI-driven music features, including remixing capabilities. It also suggested investors will be looking for tangible progress in integrating AI tools into the platform.
There is additional focus on how Spotify positions itself amid broader industry developments in AI-generated music and competing offerings from large technology platforms, including Alphabet.
Jefferies said investor discussions have increasingly centered on whether Spotify can demonstrate clear product progress in AI to address concerns about competitive positioning. The market is watching for signals that Spotify can deploy AI music capabilities at scale and avoid a perceived gap versus both large digital service competitors and emerging AI-native music platforms.
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