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That figure represents the dream target for many sectors. In order to achieve double-digit growth, the banking sector remains the main channel to inject capital into the economy and ensure funds flow to the right places, supporting high-quality growth.
Looking back at the banking sector’s credit growth, the size in 2025 reached 18.58 quadrillion VND. In 2026, the growth target is about 15%, equivalent to an additional 2.8 quadrillion VND to be pumped out. Although this is lower than the 18% increase of the previous year, it still represents a very large amount of capital.
Over many years, real estate has remained a magnet attracting credit. By the end of 2025, outstanding loans in this sector were about 4.5 quadrillion VND, accounting for nearly 25% of total credit to the economy. In many banks, this ratio exceeded 30%, and in some cases was above 50%.
In addition, the value of secured assets related to real estate that banks hold is also substantial. According to a report from a group of large banks, including Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, Agribank, and MB, the total value of collateralized assets, pledges, and discounting by end-2025 rose to nearly 16 quadrillion VND, with real estate alone around 11.64 quadrillion.
Real estate’s linkage with bank financing is also reflected in corporate bond issuance. Among the 24.8 trillion VND that enterprises issued in bonds in Q1 this year, real estate and banks accounted for about 90%, highlighting the close relationship between the banking system and the real estate market.
The economy remains too dependent on credit, with Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio at about 146%—among the higher ranges globally. However, long- and medium-term capital for production, infrastructure, and technology innovation remains scarce. While cash is available, capital allocation is not efficient and does not always go where it is needed.
This is reflected in the Capital Use Efficiency indicator (ICOR), which remains high at around 6–7, meaning more capital must be deployed to generate one unit of growth.
Steering credit flows is therefore both an immediate requirement and a long-term condition for stable and accelerated economic development. The State Bank of Vietnam’s policy orientation and adjustments are described as necessary and timely: controlling credit growth from the outset, limiting capital concentration in high-risk sectors—especially real estate—and preventing real estate credit from growing faster than the overall credit level. Banks are also expected to actively restructure their loan portfolios.
Under this directive, many banks have gradually reduced the share of real estate lending and shifted toward retail, small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, and value-added sectors.
In parallel, banks’ deposit rates are expected to be reduced in line with the SBV’s instruction, which should gradually improve funding costs and create room to reduce lending rates to support individuals and businesses in production and business development.
Another solution to be implemented soon is diversifying funding channels to gradually reduce dependence on bank credit by developing the securities market and bonds. Because bank lending cannot grow indefinitely, pushing it higher to spur growth could trigger inflationary pressures, raise exchange rates, and affect asset quality and capital safety.
In a new growth cycle, the quality of medium- and long-term capital is crucial. Capital becomes a true driver when it is channeled into value-adding sectors. Ultimately, steering credit flows is not simply a story of tightening or loosening, but of redirecting funds so that every dong of capital can become a driver for sustainable economic growth.
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