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The Q1 reporting season is off to a solid start, but investors are also watching a dense calendar of macroeconomic data points ahead. Stocks are on track for one of their best April performances on record, after the S&P 500 Index pulled back from its January-to-March 30 intraday low. Still, geopolitical risks and broader macro unease have some investors questioning whether the rally can hold.
Near-term direction may hinge on upcoming earnings reports alongside key economic releases. Bank of America said 76% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported topped Wall Street earnings estimates, above the typical 68% Week 1 beat rate.
Major companies from the “Mag 7” are set to begin reporting during the heart of the season, with Tesla scheduled to report on the evening of the article’s publication date. Investors are expected to focus on revenue and income results, as well as guidance figures as they come in.
Following Tuesday’s March Retail Sales report, Thursday’s S&P Global Flash PMIs are expected to provide another timely read on economic conditions. These Purchasing Manager Index readings cover the current month and follow a record-setting (in a negative way) preliminary April sentiment reading from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which the article describes as the worst on record.
The article frames the University of Michigan data as part of a “K-shaped” macro picture: the S&P 500 reached a record high while consumer sentiment fell to a record low. It notes that for the reading to be official, Friday’s University of Michigan survey result must confirm the preliminary poll from April 10.
It also points to optimism around a potential ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease household financial anxiety.
Two other near-term data points highlighted as useful for assessing the macro backdrop are the ADP Employment Change Weekly and the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales. The article says ADP’s weekly job change gauge reached its best level over its brief history (since September 2025) earlier this month. It also cites weekly consumer spending data suggesting a steady 7% year-over-year consumption trend.
Later in the session on Tuesday, April 28, the article points to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey. It notes that University of Michigan sentiment tends to reflect inflation perceptions, while The Conference Board’s survey leans more toward the labor market outlook. With the jobless rate described as steady and real wage growth near flat, the article suggests the April report may be difficult to interpret as strongly positive.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet mid-week and announce its April policy decision next Wednesday afternoon. The article states no rate change is expected and that the meeting is not a “dot plot” event, implying limited “fireworks.”
It also references attention on the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh, described as the presumptive successor to Chair Powell, noting that his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing has been more active than typical.
Another inflation update is due next Thursday: the PCE Price Index for March. The article says a soft March PCE print could help set up expectations for a possible Fed rate cut later this year.
It also notes that market-implied odds of an easing were reduced last month after oil rose above $100 per barrel, but that rate-cut probabilities have increased as energy prices have eased.
The article adds that April CPI was driven higher by oil’s spike, while core inflation remains described as comparatively tame.
The first Friday of May brings the first look at Q1 GDP, following what the article describes as a weak third update to the Q4 economic growth report, which could increase market sensitivity to the release.
For context, it cites Q4 GDP growth at 0.4%.
After that, the labor market becomes the focus. The official April jobs report is scheduled for May 8, following Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 2.
The article highlights that low initial claims and falling continuing claims point to labor market improvement.
The period ahead combines fast-moving corporate earnings with a heavy macro calendar. The article argues that focusing on real data and earnings may be a helpful counterweight for investors navigating geopolitical headlines.
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