Swiss private bank forecasts gold price to reach $6,000/oz by year-end

Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), a Swiss private bank, is resuming gold purchases after cutting its gold exposure in client portfolios following the start of the US–Iran conflict in late February. UBP’s analysts said the long-term outlook for gold remains intact despite near-term volatility.

UBP reduced gold exposure, then began rebuilding

Before restarting purchases in recent days, UBP cut the share of gold in client portfolios from about 10% to 3%. The bank attributed the reduction to a sharp fall in gold prices after the Gulf War began.

UBP linked the price decline to higher oil prices, which raised concerns about inflation and higher interest rates—factors that typically weigh on gold. The bank also pointed to liquidity strains that prompted traders to sell assets they could liquidate quickly, including gold, to cover losses elsewhere.

After the sell-off, UBP gradually added gold back to client portfolios, mainly through purchases of gold ETF certificates.

UBP’s portfolio management view

In a Bloomberg interview, Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, said the bank has taken initial steps to rebuild gold allocations after positions were liquidated. He also said gold holdings among institutional and retail investors are now “fairly balanced.”

UBP managed about CHF 184.5 billion (roughly USD 233 billion) in client assets as of last year.

Forecast and drivers

Gupta said UBP plans to continue rebuilding gold positions based on forecasts that gold could rise to $6,000 per ounce by year-end. He said the forecast is supported by structural demand, including central-bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand tied to concerns about fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions.

Gupta also noted that gold has fallen about 10% since the start of the US–Iran conflict, and that inflation risks could continue to weigh on prices in the near term.

Market context: ETF flows and competing assessments

UBP’s stance aligns with other investment banks that have recently reiterated a positive long-term view for gold. ANZ Banking Group Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have also forecast higher gold prices.

Gold has recovered part of its decline from its all-time high around $5,600 per ounce at the end of January, helped by bargain-hunting.

Bloomberg estimates that global gold ETF holdings rose by about 20 tonnes in April after these funds recorded their largest net outflows in five years in March.

Heraeus cautions on technical signals

Some institutions, however, have been more cautious. A Heraeus Metals Analytics report said March’s technical chart showed a bearish signal.

Heraeus described a “bearish engulfing” pattern, saying gold opened March higher but closed lower than the previous month. The report added that the negative signal appeared alongside the weakening of the uptrend at the end of January, coinciding with the start of the US–Israel conflict.

Heraeus said the last time such a signal appeared was April 2022, after which gold fell for six months, sliding from around $2,000 per ounce to $1,600 per ounce.

The report concluded that the current correction could be absorbed by the uptrend if inflation rises and real interest rates fall, supporting demand. It added that if the uptrend from last week is reversed, the next support level could be around the March low near $4,100 per ounce.