US-Iran conflict casts shadow over IMF-WB spring meetings in Washington

IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, DC, from April 13-18, 2026, are taking place amid pressure from a geopolitical shock tied to the US-Iran conflict. With many finance ministers and central bank governors in attendance, officials are expected to assess how the disruption is affecting growth, inflation, and policy room across countries.

Geopolitical shock shapes the agenda

Meetings are expected to focus on the economic outlook after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement in weekend talks in Pakistan. The talks were expected to lay groundwork for extending a two-week ceasefire and moving toward a longer-term peace agreement.

Another key theme is how governments and central banks can support economic activity without triggering additional spillovers to other economies.

IMF warning on limited fiscal space

On the eve of the meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that countries’ capacity to cope with shocks is constrained as economies weaken. She said: “Fiscal space is currently very limited. In this context, policies that protect one economy can end up hurting others, and competition among major powers is more likely to provoke conflict than resolve it.” Georgieva made the remarks in an interview aired Sunday (April 12) on CBS.

Georgieva also said the economic impact from the US-Israel war with Iran will persist even if a ceasefire is maintained. “Stabilization will take time, especially in places experiencing more severe disruption. Therefore, note that this shock will not affect all economies equally, but to varying degrees,” she added.

She said the Iran conflict could lead the IMF to lower growth forecasts. The IMF plans to publish its new outlook alongside a global financial stability report on Tuesday (April 14).

Growth outlook and potential forecast changes

In January, the IMF projected global growth of 3.3% in 2026, including 2.1% in the US, 1.4% in the euro area, and 5.4% in emerging Asian economies. By late February, the escalation of the Iran conflict had worsened the global growth outlook.

Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist of Allianz SE, said: “In the coming quarters, the key will be to assess how this war affects the resilience of some economies, especially those that were already growing slowly.”

Oil, spillovers and inflation risks

Analysts said spillovers from the US-Iran conflict and waning confidence are likely to persist even if a ceasefire holds, peace is restored, and Hormuz shipping returns to normal.

Tom Orlik, Global Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, said: “Last year, the shock came from tariffs. This year, the focus is on oil. The ‘America First’ stance of President Trump is increasing volatility in the global economy. In reality, tariff shocks were not as severe as initially feared. The Iran conflict shock could evolve similarly. However, as long as the Hormuz Strait remains blocked, oil prices will stay high, growth pressures will be larger, and inflationary pressures will rise.”

Central-bank and macro calendar: key releases

As monetary officials gather in Washington, the week’s central-bank calendar is described as relatively light. Markets are still awaiting several major indicators, including US inflation data and China’s GDP.

US inflation gauge: PPI

Investors will look to US inflation data for March when the Producer Price Index (PPI) is released on Tuesday. Like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PPI is expected to reflect energy price increases in the first month after the Iran conflict.

Economists forecast the US PPI to rise 1.1% month-on-month, the strongest gain in four years. The report may also indicate how quickly Middle East production disruptions are spreading to the US.

China data focus on Thursday

On Thursday (April 16), China is expected to be the main focus as it releases a batch of economic data. Analysts expect Q1 2026 GDP to grow 4.8% year-on-year, within the 4.5%-5% growth target set by Beijing for the year.

Also on the same day, March data on retail sales, industrial production, and real estate investment will provide further signals on how the world’s second-largest economy is progressing into Q2. The period is also seen as one where risk could rise if global demand weakens due to the Middle East conflict, potentially pressuring China’s manufacturing and business activity.

BOJ signals after IMF and G20 meetings

Asia is not expected to have a rate-decision meeting this week. Markets will instead monitor statements by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who will hold a press conference in Washington after the IMF and G20 meetings. With Ueda’s communications described as cautious, the appearances may offer clearer guidance on the BOJ’s next moves.

Market pricing currently implies about a 60% probability of a BOJ rate hike this month.

What to watch next

With the US-Iran talks ending without an agreement after 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, attention is likely to remain on the economic transmission of the conflict—particularly through oil prices and inflation dynamics—alongside the IMF’s updated growth and financial stability outlook due on April 14.