US–Iran negotiations collapse, Hormuz Strait blockade dampens market momentum

Negative weekend information has again cast a pall of caution over the market. Although some large-cap stocks pushed the VN-Index higher, breadth remained negative, signaling broad downside moves. A small number of mid- and small-cap stocks showed stronger resilience, but these gains were isolated.

The VN-Index did not close in the red thanks to VIC and VHM. The index closed up 0.51% (8.96 points). VIC rose 5.47% and VHM gained 1.49%, lifting the index by nearly 16 points. Even the VN30-Index remained slightly red, down 0.13%.

Blue-chip breadth and index support

The blue-chip basket recorded only 7 gainers and 21 decliners. Excluding VIC and VHM, the index performance was more mixed: besides VIC and VHM, VIB rose 1.72%, DGC up 0.56%, STB up 0.60%, TPB up 0.31%, and VRE up 0.18%.

In the VN30 basket, investor caution was also reflected in liquidity. Trading value in this basket fell sharply by nearly 17% versus the previous session to just over 9,734 billion dong, returning to a slow and weak state similar to late March, when expectations for de-escalation of the conflict were not yet visible.

Weekend developments weigh on sentiment

Caution was understandable after last weekend’s US-Iran talks collapsed. There was no agreement, and the Hormuz Strait was fully blockaded on both sides. Oil futures subsequently rose sharply above $100 per barrel for both types.

Intraday trading: early weakness, afternoon rebound

Domestic trading weakened from the start. In the morning session, the VN-Index was in the red with breadth heavily skewed to declines (102 gainers / 194 decliners). Around 1:40 pm, the index recovered back above the reference level, while breadth remained similar (117 gainers / 190 decliners). The biggest movers were the pillar stocks.

In the afternoon, VIC moved strongly. Its morning close was a modest gain of 0.53%, but it surged in the first hour. At 2:10 pm, VIC peaked up 6.79%, just three price steps from the ceiling. It later trimmed gains but still closed up 5.47% versus the reference. VHM also recovered strongly as the session began; it closed up 1.49% and was up 3.02% from its morning close. The sharp moves in these two large stocks pulled the VN-Index higher.

VN30: declines contained by weaker capital-weighted losers

Market-cap strength, though constrained, helped keep the VN30-Index near balance. Even with 10 stocks in the group falling by 1% or more, there was no significant pressure. The weakest names did not carry large capitalizations, including GVR (-3.12%), LPB (-2.74%), SHB (-2.60%), and FPT (-2.19%).

Mid- and small-cap resilience

The mid- and small-cap segment showed better defense, partly because selling pressure was less intense than in blue chips. Of 137 gainers, 54 rose more than 1%, and VN30 contributed only 3 gainers. Some mid-cap stocks attracted strong buying and moved sharply, including CII hitting the ceiling with liquidity of 767.5 billion dong; GEX up 3.62% with 615.9 billion; HCM up 2.37% with 502.8 billion; and NVL up 2.38% with 501.1 billion.

Other smaller-liquidity gainers included TCM up 6.84%, DPG up 3.39%, VPX up 2.48%, and YEG up 3.38%.

Sector performance and liquidity

Despite higher oil prices, oil-related stocks did not broadly rise. BSR gained 2.24% with liquidity of 367.4 billion, while OIL rose 1.35% and POV up 1.30% on very limited trading. Securities and small-cap real estate also saw notable gainers such as HCM, VPX, ORS, CTS, NVL, DXG, and HAG, though declines in these sectors appeared more frequently.

Total market liquidity on HoSE declined by about 12% versus last Friday. A risk-off sentiment returned, slowing trading and prompting investors to hold more cash. The outcome was consistent with expectations being challenged as hopes for de-escalation and unblocking shipping routes faced setbacks.