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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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US-Iran talks on April 15 are being framed as a pivot for both bitcoin and oil markets, after Al Jazeera reported that direct negotiations are under way. The new format differs from the Pakistani-mediated sessions that defined earlier contact. US officials described the latest session as preliminary and said more time is needed, but markets have already started pricing in the development.
Oil prices have moved sharply since the announcement of a blockade. WTI crude fell from $103 at the time of the announcement to $92 today. Bitcoin, which has tracked diplomatic signals in the conflict, is trading around $74,000 after reaching $76,000 on April 14.
Earlier rounds of US-Iran contact relied on intermediaries. The Islamabad sessions on April 11 and 12, mediated by Pakistan’s military leadership, lasted about 20 hours and ended without an agreement. Vice President JD Vance said Iran chose “not to accept our terms.” Trump announced the naval blockade hours after Vance departed.
Market participants are treating direct talks as removing a layer of friction. The article notes that when the April 7 ceasefire was announced through Pakistan, bitcoin jumped from $68,500 to $72,700 in under 12 hours and liquidated $427 million in short positions. It argues that a direct diplomatic breakthrough would carry more weight than a brokered one.
The minimum outcome the market would likely treat as bullish is a joint statement from both sides agreeing to extend the ceasefire beyond April 22. A commitment to a formal second-round negotiation process, even without a resolution, would likely push oil below $85 and provide bitcoin with a catalyst it has been waiting on.
The article also points to bitcoin derivatives conditions, citing 46 straight days of negative derivatives funding rates as part of the setup for a potential move if negotiations progress.
Trump earlier this week said, “Weve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly.” The article says this framing, combined with the first direct engagement between the sides, places a deal closer to the market’s horizon than at any point since the Islamabad collapse.

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