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The United States may be weeks away from a major Bitcoin policy announcement, with signals from the Bitcoin 2026 Conference pointing to progress on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Senator Cynthia Lummis indicating the Clarity Act is moving toward a May markup.
At the conference, Patrick Witt said a major announcement on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is expected within weeks, describing progress on the legal and operational framework.
Witt said the president signed the strategic bitcoin reserve executive order and that the administration has been working to “get that right,” adding that the U.S. expects to “take a big step forward from the executive branch side.”
The reserve, initiated under Donald Trump, is currently backed by Bitcoin already held by the government through seizures. The larger push now is toward legislation.
Lawmakers are working to formalize the plan through an updated bill that is evolving into the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA). The proposal includes accumulating up to 1 million BTC over five years using budget-neutral strategies.
Alongside policy development, market structure is changing quickly, with a shift in derivatives activity highlighted by crypto analyst Jeff Park.
Park noted that for the first time, IBIT options have overtaken Deribit in open interest, signaling a transition from crypto-native trading toward institutional dominance.
He also pointed to limitations in traditional models, saying DeVault is “flawed” because it “only uses Deribit options,” and that those models no longer capture the full picture of the current market.
A key indicator cited by Park is the volatility spread. He said IBIT’s implied volatility is about five points higher than offshore exchanges, which he interpreted as demand for long-term upside exposure, particularly from investors positioning early.
Park’s conclusion was direct: “We’re going to see a big Bitcoin move up… led by IBIT options.”
The developments described in the article reflect an alignment between policy and market positioning. On one side, governments are building long-term Bitcoin positions through the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve framework. On the other, institutions are reshaping how the market trades through derivatives activity centered on IBIT options.
As Park put it, “Watching IBIT take market share… shows we’re heading in the right direction.” With both policy clarity and institutional demand building at the same time, the article suggests Bitcoin’s next move may already be forming beneath the surface.
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