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US natural gas prices have fallen by nearly 20% since the Middle East conflict erupted, giving domestic industries a competitive advantage as a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran helps ease geopolitical pressure.
FreightWaves market data show the Henry Hub benchmark gas price at around $2.65 per MMBtu. That level is down about 17–18% over the past month and roughly 25% compared with a year earlier.
The decline accelerated after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, which contributed to a reduction in the “war premium” that had pushed energy prices higher during the conflict.
Unlike the global oil market, which is more directly affected by the Hormuz Strait, the US natural gas market has been less impacted due to ample domestic supply, high inventories, and increasing energy independence.
Recent data point to stronger-than-expected gas stock builds, while mild spring weather has reduced energy demand. Analysts say the impact is more pronounced for US natural gas because of domestic supply-demand dynamics.
Crude oil prices also declined by about 13–17% after the ceasefire announcement, but the effect on US natural gas has been larger.
Analysts describe natural gas as a foundational energy input for the US industrial economy. Lower gas prices reduce input costs across multiple manufacturing sectors.
In chemicals and petrochemicals, US plants use ethane derived from natural gas, which can create a cost advantage versus international peers that rely more on oil-based feedstocks.
In the fertilisers sector, gas accounts for about 70–80% of production costs for products such as ammonia and urea. Lower gas prices therefore help stabilise agricultural costs.
Reductions in electricity and heating costs also support competitiveness for heavy manufacturing, which can boost output and activity across the domestic supply chain, including freight.
Gas prices in Europe and the global LNG market remain volatile, which provides US producers with an added edge in exports and supports efforts to expand global market share.
However, the ceasefire is temporary. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, including the potential full reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Seasonal factors and LNG export demand could also influence price trends going forward.

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