USD momentum stalls after initial gains as the DXY eases around 99.8

During the week of March 30–April 3, after a strong gain early in the week, the U.S. dollar cooled and traded in a choppy range around the 100-point level. At the close on April 3, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 99.81, down 0.17 from the previous week. In the early session on March 30, DXY rose to 100.3 but subsequently weakened and slipped below 100 by week’s end.

Dollar steadies as oil concerns and labor data shape sentiment

The choppy pattern unfolded as oil prices rose on concerns about potential supply disruptions linked to Iran closing the Hormuz Strait. At the same time, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the labor market recovered in March: non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, reversing a 133,000 decline in the previous month. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.

Key driver of DXY decline: weaker USD versus yen

Overall, the DXY decline was mainly attributed to the U.S. dollar weakening against the Japanese yen. Japan announced raising the nominal yield on 10-year government bonds issued this month to 2.4%, the highest level in nearly 30 years. The move boosted expectations that the Bank of Japan will soon raise rates, supporting the yen and reducing the relative appeal of the USD.

Vietnam: central and reference rates rise; commercial rates stay at ceiling

In contrast to the DXY trend, domestic USD exchange rates in Vietnam continued to move higher. On April 3, the State Bank of Vietnam set the central rate at 25,107 VND/USD, up 7 from the end of the previous week. With a ±5% band, rates at commercial banks could move within 23,852–26,362 VND/USD.

The reference rate at the Foreign Exchange Management Department was also adjusted up to 23,902–26,312 VND/USD (buy–sell), up 7 from the previous week.

At commercial banks, USD rates remained at the ceiling. By the end of the week of April 3, Vietcombank quoted USD at 26,112–26,362 VND/USD (buy–sell), up 7 from the previous week.

Black market cools after late-March peak

On the black market, the USD rate cooled significantly after peaking at 28,080 VND/USD at the end of March. By the end of the week, it hovered around 27,480–27,520 VND/USD (buy–sell), down about 440 VND on the buy side and 450 VND on the sell side versus the prior week.